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After an unprecedented 4 years in politics, voters are evenly divided on who ought to subsequent lead the free world.
Former President Donald Trump is one state nearer to a surprising comeback in this week’s Fox News Power Rankings; the ultimate forecast earlier than the election.
But Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris each have pathways to victory, and amongst many eventualities, it is believable that Democrats win by a single electoral vote.
So much has occurred but nothing has modified
Americans really feel overwhelmed on the finish of this presidential cycle. They have grappled with rising costs, unlawful immigration, abortion legal guidelines, two world conflicts and the sudden departure of an incumbent from the presidential race.
Meanwhile, Trump confronted indictments over Jan. 6 and storing categorized paperwork, crushed greater than a dozen rivals after reentering the presidential race, and survived two assassination makes an attempt.
Trump has held regular in an unprecedented cycle. (Fox News)
Through all of it, the previous president has saved an unbreakable bond along with his voters. For greater than a 12 months, Trump has obtained assist from between 48% to 50% of voters within the Fox News Poll, whereas assist for the Democratic candidate has been extra elastic.
Polls present a good nationwide race. (Fox News)
Now, as the ultimate week of the marketing campaign begins, this citizens is locked in. Polls present a good nationwide race and curiously, the battleground states are simply as shut.
Both candidates relaxation their case on Trump
This weekend, Harris spoke at a rally with Michelle Obama in Michigan with a sharply detrimental message about Trump and girls’s well being.
The tone stood in distinction to earlier appearances by the primary woman and is an indication that the marketing campaign feels the race is shut, and even that they’re behind.
Harris campaigns alongside Philadelphia City Council member Quetcy Lozada and former first woman Michelle Obama. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images; REUTERS/Rebecca Cook)
On Sunday, the vice chairman went to Philadelphia. There are extra voters right here than another metropolis in battleground Pennsylvania and mixed, Black and Hispanic individuals make up the vast majority of its inhabitants.
Those voters stay a weak point of Harris’ new coalition.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTER OUTREACH, BALLOT EFFICIENCY AND A LITTLE HOUSEKEEPING
Harris’ go to to a Puerto Rican restaurant the identical day, nonetheless, proved to be extra useful than the marketing campaign may have anticipated.
Later that evening, Trump made his closing arguments at Madison Square Garden.
The occasion was visually highly effective. Some Republicans on the fence about “MAGA” who noticed throngs of supporters in crimson hats in Manhattan may have been persuaded that the motion is extra widespread and inclusive than earlier than.
Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump waves goodbye after a marketing campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27, 2024 in New York City. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
But this system gave Democrats new assault strains about Trump and his allies’ darkish rhetoric, and included jokes from an insult comic about Puerto Rican, Latino, and Jewish individuals. The Trump marketing campaign distanced itself from the remarks Monday, telling Fox News the joke “does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.”
These moments aren’t fairly the strategic errors that some observers consider them to be. Trump has a protracted file of feedback like these, and so they assist drive his supporters to the polls. But there is a big Puerto Rican group in Pennsylvania, the place the margins will matter.
5 NUMBERS THAT WILL DECIDE THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
The rally was a bow to the marketing campaign’s full-throated effort to prove younger males, together with low-propensity voters. This may very well be the bloc that will get Trump over the road on November 5.
But final week, there have been rumblings that this may very well be a reunion with Nikki Haley to play for the 20% of higher-propensity, non-MAGA Republicans who say they’ll vote for Harris in November. This occasion was not that.
Trump nonetheless sturdy on two high points
The former president stays very well-positioned on two of the highest three points.
The most essential points, in a Fox News Poll from earlier this month. (Fox News)
The economic system is by far and persistently an important problem in deciding voters’ ballots. Voters say Trump will higher deal with the problem by 7 factors. He is much more closely favored on immigration at 15 factors. The energy reverses for abortion, the place voters favor Harris by 13 factors.
The ballot confirmed different key points within the election. (Fox News)
The points polling seems to be much less lopsided additional down the checklist, although nonetheless with a Trump benefit. Harris leads on well being care, local weather change and election integrity, whereas Trump is forward on Israel, crime, and weapons.
Voters recognized the problem motivating them to vote. (Fox News)
Fox’s newest survey additionally requested voters which problem was motivating them to vote. 12% stated the economic system, but 11% selected candidate character and values, and 10% stated defending democracy, rights, and freedoms would get them to the polls.
In a toss-up race to 270, Arizona turns into Trump’s finest battleground alternative
The 2024 presidential election is a toss-up within the Fox News Power Rankings presidential forecast. (Fox News)
The presidential race is a toss-up. Neither Harris nor Trump have the 270 electoral votes required to win the race. They want to win the proper mixture of six toss-up states value a complete 82 electoral votes to deliver it house.
Surveys present races throughout the margin-of-error in all of the battleground states, but when checked out collectively, the polling in Arizona tells a unique story.
Fox News Power Rankings presidential map. (Fox News)
In eight high-quality polls carried out in this state since August, Trump has been forward in seven. His edge has been between 1-6 factors.
Trump has persistently held the benefit in battleground state Arizona. (Fox News)
That benefit doesn’t exist for Harris or Trump in another battleground state.
Immigration continues to be a extremely essential problem in Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico.
Arizona strikes to Lean R. (Fox News)
In the most recent Wall Street Journal survey, 25% of voters stated immigration was an important problem to their vote, larger than another battleground. It was a “deal-breaker” problem for twenty-four% of voters. And Arizona voters most popular Trump on the problem by 10 factors.
Trump allies don’t seem to be a drag. Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is much less widespread with voters regardless of their shared insurance policies and traits (her Senate race stays Lean D). But the extent of ticket-splitting is excessive and has endured all through the marketing campaign.
Presidential battlegrounds within the Fox News Power Rankings. (Fox News)
This is nonetheless a extremely aggressive race. If Trump loses, will probably be due to suburban development and non-MAGA Republican voters, who’re a powerful faction. There is additionally an abortion measure on the poll.
But the statewide polling has been directionally constant and immigration reigns supreme.
Arizona strikes from Toss Up to Lean R.
(Fox News Power Rankings are nonpartisan pre-election predictions. Each rating is knowledgeable by knowledge, reporting, and evaluation.)
Both candidates have pathways to victory
Battleground states have been gained and misplaced collectively in latest elections. Trump gained the majority of them in 2016; Biden flipped them again 4 years later.
There are indicators that the Democratic marketing campaign is pursuing a path-of-least-resistance the place they eke out a victory with half of these states.
Harris-Walz marketing campaign schedule. (Fox News)
Harris and Walz’s schedules this week concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states account for about 60% of their time, the marketing campaign’s most treasured useful resource. Both nominees are visiting all three.
(In deep blue DC, Harris will spotlight Trump’s efforts to overturn the outcomes of the final election in a speech on the Ellipsis.)
Democrats have additionally spent about 60% of their battleground promoting budgets in the identical states; over $460 million.
This means that the marketing campaign is concentrating on wins in these states and Nebraska’s 2nd district, plus all of the much less aggressive races Biden gained final time.
That would land them on 270 electoral votes, the minimal quantity required to win.
This is considered one of many eventualities. But because the Harris marketing campaign struggles to pull forward, it is a really believable one.
Other aggressive presidential races. (Fox News)
There are 10 states that may possible stay in celebration arms but stay aggressive within the last stretch.
For Republicans, the primary alternative on an important evening could be Virginia, the place a Washington Post ballot exhibits Harris up by six factors, 49%-43%.
Fox News Power Rankings presidential desk. (Fox News)
Four Senate races turn out to be extra aggressive
Republicans are poised to flip the Senate with not less than 51 seats, starting with an all-but-certain win in West Virginia, adopted by Montana, the place they’ve an edge. The subsequent finest alternative is in Ohio, which is nonetheless a toss-up.
Republicans are forecast to management the Senate in Fox News Power Rankings. (Fox News)
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all transfer from Lean D and be part of the toss-up class this week.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate map. (Fox News)
Republicans have been chipping away at their opponents’ leads in these states for the reason that campaigns heated up, and polling now exhibits races throughout the margin-of-error.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate battleground shifts. (Fox News)
All three Democratic candidates are nonetheless over-performing the highest of the ticket by some extent or two, and the campaigns are clearly conscious: they’ve all promoted their work with Trump on bipartisan payments in new tv adverts.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate map. (Fox News)
The GOP is unlikely to choose off all three of those seats, but any could be gravy on high of a probable majority flip.
Meanwhile, Republicans have been gradual to reply to unbiased candidate Dan Osborn’s marketing campaign in Nebraska. Incumbent GOP Sen. Deb Fischer has gained twice earlier than, but Osborn, a Navy veteran and native union chief, is now a severe menace.
A brand new ballot from the New York Times/Siena finds 46% of voters backing Osborn and 48% with Fischer; shockingly shut for a conservative state. That is after GOP teams started telling voters that Osborn is a “Bernie Democrat.”
This Nebraska Senate race strikes from Likely R to Lean R.
Other aggressive Senate races. (Fox News)
The Senate may produce other surprises in retailer, together with Florida, the place incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Scott continues to pour cash into the race, and Texas, the place Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is preventing for an additional time period in opposition to Democratic Rep. Colin Allred. Both these races are nonetheless Likely R.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate desk. (Fox News)
Democrats spend massive in a toss-up House
The House is nonetheless a toss-up.
Fox News Power Rankings House forecast. (Fox News)
Beneath the floor, the battle for the gavel is getting costlier. House candidates have spent greater than $3 billion on their races up to now, concentrated in roughly 40 battleground districts.
Fox News Power Rankings House battleground shifts. (Fox News)
Democrats have raised and spent practically twice as a lot as Republicans, and that is an essential think about Pennsylvania’s seventh district.
Biden gained this japanese district by lower than some extent in 2020 and it consists of Northampton County, which had the narrowest margin of any within the state that 12 months.
Incumbent Democratic Rep. Susan Wild is financially dominant, with $7.5 million in marketing campaign spending this cycle to GOP rival and state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie’s $1.2 million. The district strikes from Toss Up to Lean D.
More Fox News Power Rankings House shifts. (Fox News)
Money is additionally an enormous a part of the story in Illinois’ seventeenth district and Indiana’s 1st district. Democratic incumbents in these races have spent not less than thrice as a lot as their Republican opponents. These seats transfer from Lean D to Likely D.
The money is flowing in Arizona’s 2nd district too. Incumbent GOP Rep. Eli Crane faces a problem from Democrat and former President of the Navajo Nation Jonathan Nez in this disproportionately Native American district.
Nez has dropped $3.7 million on the race and is specializing in his work with Trump on water entry. Crane, in the meantime, is highlighting the border. The 2nd district strikes from Solid R to Likely R.
Fox News Power Rankings good nights within the House for every celebration. (Fox News)
Virginia’s seventh district is extra aggressive than ever. Democrats have fielded Eugene Vindman, a Navy veteran, whereas Republicans are searching for a flip with legal professional Derrick Anderson.
The marketing campaign has been marked by mini-scandals on either side, but Vindman doesn’t have the sturdy centrist model that retiring Democrat Abigail Spanberger constructed. This district strikes from Lean D to Toss Up.
Fox News Power Rankings House desk. (Fox News)
Keep a watch on Indiana’s governor race
So far, there have solely been three aggressive governor’s races on the map and New Hampshire is the one to watch.
Fox News Power Rankings aggressive Governor races. (Fox News)
In Indiana, Republican gubernatorial candidate Sen. Mike Braun ought to have been in a position to cruise to victory in opposition to any Democratic opponent.
Fox News Power Rankings Governor shifts. (Fox News)
But Braun’s hardline place on abortion has given Democrat Jennifer McCormick a gap. The state enacted a close to whole ban on abortion two years in the past, which McCormick argues is too excessive. Braun maintains that Indiana ought to be a “right-to-life state.”
There are additionally uncommon partisan dynamics at play. The GOP’s candidate for lieutenant governor may affect assist for the Republican ticket amongst moderates, and there is a Libertarian on the poll.
Indiana’s governor race strikes from Solid R to Likely R.
Fox News Power Rankings Governor desk. (Fox News)
One week till election evening
No matter who reaches 270 votes subsequent week, the winner would be the American individuals.
The United States is not the one democracy, but it is probably the most highly effective. Estimates recommend that not less than 160 million voters will solid a poll by Election Day.
They could have the exceptional energy to select the chief of the free world and the path of the nation.
Fox News’ Democracy ’24 particular protection with Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum begins subsequent Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET from New York City.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Coverage will embody the most recent race calls from the Fox News Decision Desk and outcomes from the Fox News Voter Analysis.
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