Who’s in cost: The muddy history of the 50-50 Senate

There’s an outdated noticed in baseball which says that the “tie goes to the runner.”

If solely it had been that straightforward in the United States Senate.

There is a really actual probability that the Senate may very well be tied at 50-50 in the 119th Congress which begins in January.

The Senate map in play subsequent week positively favors Republicans. Democrats at the moment maintain a 51-49 edge. There are 4 impartial senators who “caucus” with the Democrats, giving them operational management.

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It’s broadly believed that the celebration which controls the vice presidency routinely secures management of the Senate. But that’s removed from computerized. It is smart that the vp – who Constitutionally serves as the President of the Senate and should break ties – ought to successfully grant Senate management to his or her celebration. There have been two Senate ties in latest history. One Senate tie was in 2001. The different one was in 2021-2023. But what unfolded in these situations is essential to grasp why awarding Senate management to the celebration of the vice presidency shouldn’t be etched on a stone pill. Moreover, these circumstances might assist clarify why it could be problematic to settle which celebration would possibly management the Senate in 2025.

Let’s first rewind.

There was a tie in the Senate in 1881. There’s truly some fascinating infighting and resignations of senators which explains the political machinations of that circumstance. There was additionally a tie in 1954  – and a number of switches in the majority/minority of senators between 1953-1955. That’s partially because of the dying of 9 senators over a brief interval of time.

There have been few situations in American history in which the Senate’s partisan composition has been evenly break up. Read on to see what occurs when such a political crossroads is reached. (Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency through Getty Images)

There have been two ties in the early twenty first Century. But whereas one celebration or the different typically had extra members than the different facet, there was no such factor as a “Majority Leader” or “Minority Leader” till the early twentieth Century. Senators regarded the establishment as a physique of equals. So there was no cause to designate somebody as “in charge.” But that modified slightly greater than 100 years in the past, launching the modern Senate.

In late 2000, the Senate arrived at its first tie in a long time at 50-50. The ultimate race referred to as was a win by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., over late Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash., in December. Keep in thoughts that 2000 was additionally the yr of the Florida election dispute involving the presidency. President George W. Bush topped Vice President Al Gore. Then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., brokered a power-sharing association. The 50-50 break up, coupled with Vice President Dick Cheney, propelled Republicans into the majority. Lott was in cost. But the deal afforded Daschle some flooring powers not sometimes granted to the Minority Leader. Republicans would chair Senate committees. But membership by Democrats on every committee was degree with the GOP.

The pact additionally included a key rider: If one facet or the different truly garnered a proper majority at any time throughout the 107th Congress, then the deal was off and that celebration actually wielded a majority of the Senate.

The degree of comity between Lott and Daschle was instrumental to this settlement. And, all 100 senators agreed to the energy sharing association. One would possibly ask why everybody was on board? Lott and Daschle earned the confidence of their members. Plus, Republicans knew that Democrats would outright block ANYTHING in the event that they weren’t granted a adequate voice. Meantime, Democrats agreed to the pact as a result of the different meant they had been relegated to the minority. Under these circumstances they had been in the minority – however with an asterisk.

Lott’s reed-thin majority was short-lived. By springtime, late Sen. Jim Jeffords, I-Vt., dropped his membership with the GOP. Jeffords grew to become an impartial and elected to caucus with the Democrats. Jeffords’ maneuver immediately propelled Daschle to Majority Leader.

Control of the Senate for the 117th Congress wasn’t settled till early 2021. That’s when Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., defeated then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., to make it a 50-50 tie. President Biden captured the Presidency. Republicans had been leery of being shut out like the Democrats frightened in 2001. No idiot he, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., insisted on the similar power-sharing association hammered out between Lott and Daschle twenty years earlier. Democrats would function the majority celebration as a result of of Vice President Harris. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., could be at the helm. But the GOP would take pleasure in some fruits of energy in the minority, because of the 2001 deal.

On paper, partisan management of a 50-50 Senate is set by who the Vice President is: in this case, “Vice President J.D. Vance” presiding over an evenly-split chamber would tilt management to Republicans. “Vice President Tim Walz” would do the similar for Democrats. (AP/Matt Rourke)

So what occurs if there’s a tie in 2025?

The Senate is steeped in customized and custom. So if there’s a 50-50 impasse, there’s an excellent probability a “Vice President Tim Walz” means Democrats are in cost. The similar for the GOP if there’s a “Vice President JD Vance.” But we’re working in a distinct political environment as of late. Granted, the power-sharing preparations of 2001 and 2021 each emerged after disputed presidential elections. There was an curiosity in each situations to calm the waters in each of these episodes. But this time round? Who is aware of.

What else might muddy the waters? Democrats are pouring cash into Nebraska to spice up impartial Dan Osborn in his quest to defeat Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. Osborn has made the race a lot nearer than anticipated. But Osborn additionally says he gained’t caucus with both celebration. That might negate the probabilities of the tie. It additionally raises the query about the place the Senate would possibly place Osborn’s desk in the chamber and whether or not he would serve on any committees. Independent senators have traditionally caucused with one facet or the different.

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Then there’s the query about simply how restive senators could also be after the election. McConnell is relinquishing his management position. The declared candidates to succeed him are Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Tex., and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. It’s attainable different senators may very well be in play, too.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, has pushed the GOP management candidates to change inner convention guidelines and weaken the Republican chief. It’s removed from clear that there will likely be an urge for food for bipartisanship and comity in the new Congress if there’s a Senate tie.

And, as in 2000 and 2020, what if there’s disagreement about whether or not Harris or former President Trump gained the presidency? That might dictate whether or not senators are prepared to award the “majority” to at least one facet or the different if it’s not sure if Walz or Vance is Vice President.

Senate management in the 119th Congress might also be decided by the fates of susceptible Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Deb Fischer of Nebraska. (Reuters/Go Nakamura/AP/Stephanie Scarbrough)

And a footnote on the energy of the Vice President to interrupt ties: the Vice President shouldn’t be required to vote to interrupt a tie. If there’s a 50-50 vote on a invoice or an modification in the Senate, by rule, a tie loses. So if a vote is tied, the Vice President gained’t vote if the administration or celebration desires the problem to go all the way down to defeat. There’s no cause to forged a “nay” vote to pile on with the loss.

That means the Vice President solely votes in the affirmative. So if a tie vote means the problem is failing – and the President and the Vice President need the problem to go in the different path – she or he votes “aye.” That makes it 51-50 – approving the modification or laws.

A reminder that the Vice President CANNOT vote if the vote is 49 yeas to 50 nays. That’s not a tie. Thus the Vice President isn’t afforded a vote to edge the tally to 50-50.

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So, regardless of the historic precedent of the vp dictating which celebration will management the Senate, the energy of the vp is definitely fairly restricted.

Which brings us again to our thesis: When it involves Senate management, nowhere is it written {that a} “tie goes to the runner.” Or in this case, the celebration of the vp. And that’s why the potential of a divided Senate in 2025 – amid a hyper unstable political local weather – might make it onerous to kind out which celebration runs the place.