When could Trump become the GOP nominee? Here’s what the numbers tell us

Donald Trump continues to dominate in the Republican main.

The former president notched assist from a median of 75% of nationwide GOP voters in polls launched by NBC News, CNN and Quinnipiac University over the final 4 weeks.

His opponent, Nikki Haley, obtained assist from a median of 20% of Republican voters in the similar polls.

Still, this race isn’t over till a candidate wins 1,215 or extra delegates.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former President Trump (Al Drago/Bloomberg by way of Getty Images)

Haley reminded voters this week that she is “not going anyplace,” pledging to remain in till not less than Super Tuesday. It could be longer.

The former South Carolina governor faces an especially steep climb to make this race aggressive. She would want a much-stronger-than-expected exhibiting in her residence state this weekend after which use the momentum to win a number of extra states between now and late March.

That’s as a result of late March is probably going the earliest time when Trump could clinch the majority of delegates and, due to this fact, become the presumptive nominee.

The state of play

Trump at present has 63 delegates, Haley has 17.

That’s after the former president’s wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and the Virgin Islands – the 4 primaries or caucuses which have taken place thus far.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at a marketing campaign occasion on Feb. 21, 2024, in Beaufort, South Carolina. (AP Photo/Meg Kinnard)

While Haley has not gained a contest, the former governor put up a combat in New Hampshire and gained almost as many delegates in Iowa.

Both these states allocate delegates proportionally, that means that the variety of delegates a candidate receives aligns with their relative vote share.

HOW PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND STATES HAVE CHANGED OVER THE YEARS

The highway to Super Tuesday

There are a number of contests earlier than Super Tuesday with a complete of 185 delegates on the line:

• South Carolina, Feb. 24: There are 50 delegates at stake this Saturday evening. The statewide winner will take all of the 29 at-large delegates accessible. The winner in every congressional district receives one other three delegates per district gained (as much as 21 delegates). Haley has campaigned closely in her residence state, making this the subsequent main contest to look at. Special protection begins at 7 p.m. ET on Fox News Channel.
• Michigan, Feb. 27 and March 2: 16 delegates are on the line in Michigan’s main, half one in all a two-part nominating contest there. They shall be awarded to the candidates proportionally (in the event that they get 12.5%+ of the vote). On March 2, one other 39 delegates shall be awarded at district conventions.
• Idaho, March 2: 32 delegates are at stake, and the candidate with a majority of the statewide vote will take all of them.
• Missouri, March 2: Missouri is holding precinct caucuses on March 2, however delegates gained’t be awarded till later in the course of.
• D.C., March 1-3: There are 19 delegates on the line in the nation’s capital; the candidate who wins the majority will take all of them.
• North Dakota, March 4: The day earlier than Super Tuesday, 29 extra delegates shall be awarded. If a candidate will get 60% of the vote, they win all of these delegates; in any other case, delegates shall be awarded proportionally to candidates with not less than 20% of the vote.

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday will get its title from the massive variety of states – and, due to this fact, the massive variety of delegates – on supply in a single evening. The complete is 874.

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Here are these states and a abstract of the key guidelines (in lots of instances, this isn’t an exhaustive listing of all the guidelines for every state). The complete potential delegates for every class of delegates are listed in brackets.

• Alabama: 50 delegates. Statewide (29): majority-take-all, in any other case proportional for candidates with 20%+ of the vote. Congressional districts (21): majority-take-all or winner-take-most.
• Alaska: 29 delegates, proportional (13%+).
• American Samoa: 9 delegates nominated by a delegate decision.
• Arkansas: 40 delegates. Statewide (28): majority-take-most or proportional (15%+). Congressional districts (12): majority-take-all or winner-take-most.
• California: 169 delegates, majority-take-all or proportional.
• Colorado: 37 delegates, proportional (20%+).
• Maine: 20 delegates, majority-take-all or proportional (20%+).
• Massachusetts: 40 delegates, majority-take-all or proportional.
• Minnesota: 39 delegates. Statewide (15): 80%-take-all or proportional (20%+). Congressional districts (24): proportional (20%+). A candidate who receives 80%+ statewide wins all congressional district delegates as nicely.
• North Carolina: 74 delegates. Statewide (32): proportional (20%+). Congressional districts (42): ⅔-take-all or winner-take-most.
• Oklahoma: 43 delegates. Statewide (28): majority-take-all or proportional (15%+). Congressional districts (15): majority-take-all or proportional (15%+).
• Tennessee: 58 delegates. Statewide (31): ⅔-take-all or proportional (20%+). Congressional districts (27): ⅔-take-all or winner-take-most.
• Texas: 161 delegates. Statewide (48): proportional (20%+). Congressional districts (114): majority-take-all or proportional (20%+).
• Utah: 40 delegates. Majority-take-all or proportional (15%+).
• Vermont: 17 delegates. Majority-take-all or proportional (20%+).
• Virginia: 48 delegates. Statewide (12): majority-take-all or proportional (15%+). Congressional districts (33): majority-take-all or proportional (15%+).

Most of the Super Tuesday states have majority-take-all guidelines. In a race with two main candidates left, this implies the candidate who wins could be very prone to take all of these delegates.

Former President Trump (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

If Trump gained each single delegate on supply between at this time and Super Tuesday, which is extremely unlikely if Haley stays in the race, he would take a complete of 1,122 delegates. That remains to be a few hundred delegates in need of the 1,215 wanted to win.

Later in March

There are two extra “mini Super Tuesday” occasions as March rolls on, together with different contests. In abstract:

• Wyoming, ending March 10: 12 delegates by means of county conventions.

Then it’s on to Super Tuesday II on March 12 with 161 delegates complete:

• Georgia: 59 delegates. Statewide (17): proportional (20%+). Congressional districts (42): majority-take-all or winner-take-most.
• Hawaii: 19 delegates. Statewide (13): proportional. Congressional districts (6): proportional.
• Mississippi: 40 delegates. Statewide (28): majority-take-all or proportional (20%). Congressional districts (12): winner-take-most. A candidate who receives a majority statewide wins all congressional district delegates as nicely.
• Washington: 43 delegates. Statewide (13): majority-take-all or proportional (20%+). Congressional districts (30): majority-take-all or proportional (20%+).

These states have a mixture of delegate guidelines that make it tough for one candidate in a aggressive race to win all of them. 

FACING LONG ODDS AGAINST TRUMP, HALEY REMAINS DEFIANT

Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to former President Trump and candidate for RNC co-chair, fires up a crowd of supporters in North Charleston, South Carolina, on Feb. 21, 2024. (Brandon Gillespie/Fox News)

If Trump have been to comb the March 12 contests, he would become the presumptive nominee with a complete of 1,295 delegates by the finish of March 12.

March 12 is the earliest potential date of a Trump victory

A win on March 12 could be very unlikely, although, on condition that Haley has made investments in a number of upcoming states.

It’s extra prone to take till not less than March 19, when a number of extra states with massive delegate hauls have their primaries.

The complete variety of delegates awarded ticks up once more beginning March 15:

• Northern Marianas, March 15: 9 delegates, winner-take-all.
• Guam, March 16: 9 unbound delegates (so we’ll exclude these for now).

Then comes Super Tuesday III, on March 19, with 350 complete delegates in a single evening:

• Arizona: 43 delegates, winner-take-all.
• Florida: 125 delegates, winner-take-all.
• Illinois: 64 delegates. Statewide (13): winner-take-all. Congressional districts (51): delegate election.
• Kansas: 39 delegates, winner-take-all.
• Ohio: 79 delegates, winner-take-all.

If Trump stays the chief of this race, then it’s potential that he could win all 350 delegates on this evening. That would hypothetically give him as many as 1,654 delegates by this level of the race.

March 19 is a potential Trump victory date

There is just one extra contest in late March:

• Louisiana, March 23: 47 delegates, winner-take-all.

If Haley is rather more aggressive by this level in the race, then Trump must wait till not less than April 2 to succeed in 1,215 delegates.

WHO’S ON TRUMP’S RUNNING MATE SHORT LIST

And in fact, in that situation, Haley would have amassed a big variety of delegates of her personal, making it potential for her to become the presumptive nominee late in the main season.

If the race continues into April, it’s going to become aggressive

There are nonetheless many delegates on the desk in April. In abstract:

• April 2: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin. 195 delegates complete.
• April 6: Missouri (district conventions). 40 delegates.
• Ending April 20: Wyoming (state conference). 17 delegates.
• April 21: Puerto Rico. 23 delegates.
• April 23: Pennsylvania. 67 delegates, however solely 16 are certain delegates.

These are all potential dates for Trump or Haley to prevail. The remaining states are break up between May and June:

• May 4: Missouri (state conference). 11 certain delegates, 3 unbound delegates.
• May 7: Indiana. 58 delegates.
• May 14: Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. 105 delegates.
• May 21: Kentucky and Oregon. 77 delegates.
• June 4: Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. 63 certain delegates, 31 unbound delegates.

No matter what, we may have a presumptive winner earlier than June 5.

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