Train strikes 2024: What is the latest update and what happens subsequent?

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Since nationwide rail strikes started in the summer season of 2022, tons of of tens of millions of journeys have been cancelled. Billions of kilos have been misplaced to the UK economic system, significantly hospitality companies – and taxpayers are subsidising an increasingly decrepit and unreliable railway to the tune of £90 per second on prime of the regular subsidy.

After the latest spherical of commercial motion by practice drivers belonging to the Aslef union, the solely certainty is that extra walk-outs will observe.

Strikes are deliberate on 1 March at LNER and Northern, although these usually are not linked with the essential points at stake.

Over the previous 19 months of strikes, there was zero progress in the dispute between Aslef and the 14 rail corporations managed by the UK authorities and represented by the Rail Delivery Group (RDG).

In a snap social media ballot for The Independent, with 2,142 responses, one in three passengers say they’ll completely journey much less after the industrial motion lastly ends.

These are the key questions and solutions.

Where are we with industrial motion on the railways?

Many rail passengers could really feel nationwide strikes have been happening perpetually. In reality, the first nationwide rail walkouts since the Nineteen Eighties started in the summer season of 2022.

The bigger rail union, the RMT, has ended its marketing campaign of strikes for now. But Aslef, the smaller but extra highly effective practice drivers’ union, is as removed from an settlement as ever with the 14 English rail corporations whose operations are managed by the authorities.

Since the dispute started, Aslef has referred to as common strikes and bans on rest-day working. The latest industrial motion by practice drivers, comprising an additional time ban and “rolling” regional walk-outs, hit for 9 days from 29 January to six February.

The intention of those rolling strikes and the ban on rest-day working is to trigger most disruption for minimal lack of pay.

How a lot has all the disruption value?

According to the RDG, industrial motion from June 2022 up till mid-January 2024 has value the rail sector round £775m in misplaced income. That doesn’t embody the affect of the most up-to-date strikes, which in all probability provides an additional £50m to the losses.

UKHospitality estimates the misplaced enterprise for locations to eat, drink and keep quantities to virtually £5bn. Kate Nicholls, the organisation’s chief govt, says: “Ongoing strike action hurts businesses, prevents people from getting to work and significantly erodes confidence in the rail network.”

In addition, there is an unknowable lack of income from passengers who’ve adjusted their life or discovered different types of transport; companies which have stopped making journeys and are utilizing on-line communication as an alternative; and individuals trimming again on journey due to the lack of certainty.

What is at the root of the dispute?

The practice drivers are demanding a no-strings pay rise – and say that some Aslef members haven’t had a rise for 5 years. But the authorities insists that even a modest pay improve is contingent on radical adjustments to long-standing working preparations in an effort to cut back prices and the virtually £250 per second subsidy the railway is at the moment receiving from the taxpayer – 43 per cent larger than regular, in accordance with authorities figures.

Since the pandemic, journey patterns have modified. Ticket income is about one-fifth down on pre-Covid ranges. As taxpayers will foot the eventual invoice for the practice drivers’ pay rise, the Department for Transport will log out any deal. Ministers consider practice drivers’ phrases and circumstances are a part of the downside.

To hold prices down, they have to settle for adjustments to how they work, akin to making Sunday a part of the working week in all places. The union say this is utterly unacceptable. The practice drivers will negotiate on such adjustments, however solely after they get an honest no-strings pay provide on prime of their present pay, averaging £60,000 a 12 months. They consider the cash will likely be discovered to satisfy their calls for, as a result of it at all times has been in the previous. They have additionally at all times “sold” reforms to working preparations for an additional few per cent on their pay, and they don’t intend to cease now.

Stuck in the center: the passenger.

Which rail corporations are concerned?

Aslef is in dispute with the practice operators which can be contracted by the authorities to offer rail companies. They are:

Intercity operators:

Avanti West Coast

CrossNation

East Midlands Railway

Great Western Railway (GWR)

LNER

TransPennine Express

Southeast England commuter operators:

C2C

Greater Anglia

GTR (Gatwick Express, Great Northern, Southern, Thameslink)

Southeastern

South Western Railway (together with the Island Line on the Isle of Wight)

Operators specializing in the Midlands and north of England:

Chiltern Railways

Northern Trains

West Midlands Railway (together with London Northwestern Railway)

Which corporations usually are not concerned?

ScotRail, Transport for Wales, Transport for London (together with the Elizabeth Line), Merseyrail and “open-access” operators akin to Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo. But their companies are crowded on days of commercial motion, the place they duplicate journeys of strike-hit firms.

What are the warring sides saying?

Rail minister Huw Merriman informed The Independent: “We believe a fair and reasonable offer is there on the table for Aslef if they put it to their members. These are train drivers that are paid an average £60,000 for a 35-hour, four-day week. The pay deal would take them up to £65,000.”

A spokesperson for Rail Delivery Group, representing the practice operators, mentioned: “There are no winners from these strikes that will unfortunately cause disruption for our customers. We believe rail can have a bright future, but right now taxpayers are contributing an extra £54m a week to keep services running post-Covid.

“Aslef’s leadership need to recognise the financial challenge facing rail. Instead of staging more damaging industrial action, we call on the Aslef leadership to work with us to resolve this dispute and deliver a fair deal which both rewards our people, and makes the changes needed to make services more reliable.”

But Mick Whelan, basic secretary of Aslef, says it’s a garbage deal that he can’t probably put to his members – a few of whom haven’t had a pay rise for 5 years. Aslef members have constantly voted overwhelmingly for industrial motion in pursuit of their calls for.

The union says it has had no talks with Mark Harper, the transport secretary, since 2022; with Huw Merriman, the rail minister, since January 2023; and with the employers since April 2023.

Mr Whelan mentioned: “We have given the government every opportunity to come to the table but it has now been a year since we had any contact from the Department for Transport. It’s clear they do not want to resolve this dispute.”

Meanwhile, the corrosion in confidence amongst travellers continues, with no rail passenger in a position to plan journeys greater than two weeks forward – that being the minimal discover the union should give for industrial motion.

What about the new minimal service ranges regulation?

Legislation now permits the transport secretary to stipulate minimal service ranges (MSLs) on strike days amounting to 40 per cent of the regular service. The authorities says the Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Act 2023 goals “to ensure that the public can continue to access services that they rely on, during strike action.”

No practice operator is in search of to impose the new regulation on the practice drivers’ union. LNER mentioned it would achieve this, and opened consultations, at which level Aslef referred to as a separate five-day strike on LNER alone. Then the practice operator mentioned it might not require drivers to work, and the strike was referred to as off.

The BBC reviews that the prime minister is dissatisfied that practice operators had not carried out minimal service ranges. A Downing Street spokesperson mentioned: “Yes, it’s something that we and the public expect them to use.

“We’ve been repeatedly been clear that this legislation is available for train operators to use.”

The Transport Select Committee has beforehand warned of potential unintended penalties of the laws. The Conservative chair, Iain Stewart, mentioned: “There is a risk of MSLs worsening worker-employer relations and that, as a result, MSLs could end up making services less reliable.”

The minimal service degree guidelines don’t apply to union bans on non-contractual rest-day working – so there can be no profit in imposing the regulation when an additional time ban is in drive.

What are the 1 March strikes about?

Train drivers members of Aslef working for LNER, the essential operator on the East Coast essential line, and Northern – serving the north of England – will stroll out on Friday 1 March.

Hundreds of trains will likely be cancelled because of the strikes. In addition, an additional time ban will apply on the earlier and following days, Thursday 29 February and Saturday 2 March.

The industrial motion has been referred to as for what Aslef described as LNER’s and Northern’s “persistent failure to comply with existing agreements”.

The Independent understands that the union is sad with what it sees as LNER’s routine use of managers to drive trains on some routes, and “toxic” native industrial relations at Northern.

Aslef’s Mick Whelan mentioned: “We are fed up to the back teeth with the bad faith shown, day after day, week after week, and month after month by these two companies.”

A spokesperson for LNER mentioned: “Our priority focus remains on minimising disruption to customers during Aslef strikes, which sadly will continue to cause disruption and delays.”

Tricia Williams, chief working officer at Northern, mentioned: “We’re surprised and disappointed that strike action has been called over a local disagreement that we have all been working positively to resolve.“

Previous experience of train drivers’ strikes suggests that Northern will cancel all trains on 1 March, while LNER will run a skeleton service with reduced hours between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh via York and Newcastle.

Both rail firms are state-run, having been brought back into public control after the previous franchise holders stood aside.

What does the Labour Party say?

Louise Haigh, Labour’s shadow transport secretary, said: “It is a staggering dereliction of duty that the transport secretary hasn’t got around the table with the unions to try to resolve it since the Christmas before last.

“Labour will take an unashamedly different approach to the Tories, and will work with both sides to reach a deal in the interests of passengers and workers. If the transport secretary took this sensible approach then perhaps we wouldn’t still be having strikes on our railways.”

The shadow rail minister, Stephen Morgan MP, has beforehand mentioned: “Labour will bring our railways back into public ownership, as contracts expire, and ensure services work in the interests of the passenger.”