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Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections key statistics and benchmarks
Voters go to the polls on Thursday in two parliamentary by-elections, with electoral contests going down in Northamptonshire and South Gloucestershire.
Helen Harrison is operating for the Conservative Party in Wellingborough, after her disgraced accomplice Peter Bone misplaced the seat in a recall petition having been suspended over bullying and sexual misconduct claims he denies.
Mr Bone had a majority of 18,540 in what has been historically a protected seat for the Tories. Ms Harrison is operating in opposition to Labour’s Gen Kitchen and 9 different candidates.
Labour and the Tories can even battle it out for the Kingswood constituency in South Gloucestershire, vacated by Chris Skidmore, who resigned in protest on the authorities’s plans to spice up North Sea oil and gasoline drilling.
Sam Bromiley can be defending a majority of 11,220 for the Conservatives in opposition to Labour’s candidate Damien Egan and 5 different candidates.
The Kingswood constituency can be abolished on the subsequent normal election – which has to happen by regulation no later than January 2025 – which means that whoever wins the competition will symbolize the seat for just a few months.
Labour attempting to restrict harm of antisemitism row
Labour is attempting to restrict the harm of the most recent antisemitism row within the celebration simply hours earlier than voting begins in two essential by-elections.
Former Labour MP Graham Jones is known to have been administratively suspended from the celebration pending an investigation after audio emerged of him utilizing the phrases “f****** Israel” throughout a gathering.
He additionally allegedly prompt that British individuals who volunteer to battle with the Israeli Defence Forces needs to be “locked up”.
Labour must observe a proper course of if the celebration wished to drop Mr Jones as candidate for Hyndburn on the subsequent normal election, however he’s believed to have attended an interview on Tuesday night.
It comes after Labour withdrew assist for the celebration’s candidate for the Rochdale by-election, Azhar Ali, for apparently making antisemitic remarks on the similar assembly of the Lancashire Labour Party.
Voting begins at 7am on Thursday in by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood, and the controversy could harm Labour’s likelihood of gaining two seats gained by the Conservatives on the final normal election
Katy Clifton15 February 2024 03:00
Rochdale by-election additionally looms
Voters additionally go to the polls within the Rochdale by-election on the finish of the month.
Labour this week withdrew assist for the celebration’s candidate in that by-election, Azhar Ali, for apparently making antisemitic remarks on the similar assembly of the Lancashire Labour Party.
Also operating in Rochdale are former Labour MPs Simon Danczuk, now the Reform Party candidate, and George Galloway, of the Workers Party of Britain, who’s campaigning in opposition to Labour’s stance on Gaza.
Katy Clifton15 February 2024 01:00
Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections: Key statistics
If the Conservatives lose one or each of Thursday’s by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough, it will imply the federal government has clocked up extra by-election defeats in a single parliament than any authorities because the Nineteen Sixties.
The Tories’ present tally of by-election losses because the 2019 normal election is eight: Chesham & Amersham and North Shropshire in 2021 (each gained by the Liberal Democrats); Tiverton & Honiton and Wakefield in 2022 (gained by the Lib Dems and Labour respectively); and Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth in 2023 (all Labour positive factors besides Somerton & Frome, which was gained by the Lib Dems).
The final authorities to lose this many by-elections throughout a single parliament was the 1992-97 Conservative administration led by John Major.
If the Tories lose one or each of Thursday’s contests, it will convey to 9 or 10 the variety of defeats up to now this parliament: greater than any earlier authorities because the 1966-70 Labour administration of Harold Wilson, which endured 15 losses.
Even accounting for the Conservatives’ one by-election achieve this parliament – successful Hartlepool from Labour in 2021 – a double defeat on Thursday would convey the celebration’s general by-election scorecard to 9 web losses (10 defeats, one achieve).
This would nonetheless be worse than any authorities since 1966-70.
Katy Clifton14 February 2024 23:00
Who is Wellingborough candidate Helen Harrison?
The Conservatives have three difficult by-elections to contest in February, with the Northamptonshire seat of Wellingborough looming giant within the public eye.
Up for grabs after the departure of disgraced former MP Peter Bone, the native Conservative Party have chosen his accomplice – Helen Harrison – as his substitute candidate. Wellingborough’s former MP Peter Bone was suspended from Parliament for six weeks final yr, following a watchdog report into his behaviour.
The impartial panel discovered he had bullied and indecently uncovered himself to a member of workers, allegations which he continues to disclaim.
Ms Harrison has stood by her accomplice, telling the BBC that she believes the panel “got it wrong”. The former physiotherapist insists she is “proud” to have Mr Bone on the marketing campaign path along with her, and that voters haven’t been elevating the difficulty on the doorstep.
Albert Toth 14 February 2024 21:00
Wellinborough profile
The Northamptonshire constituency was gained by Peter Bone for the Conservatives at each normal election from 2005 to 2019.
He elevated the Tories’ share of the vote at every ballot, pushing it up from 43% in 2005 to 48% in 2010, 52% in 2015, 57% in 2017 and 62% in 2019.
Labour got here second in 4 of the 5 contests, the exception being 2015 when Ukip was runner-up.
Further again, Labour gained Wellingborough on the 1997 and 2001 normal elections.
The chain of occasions that led to the by-election started when Mr Bone acquired a six-week suspension from the House of Commons after an inquiry discovered he had subjected a workers member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
The suspension triggered a recall petition in his constituency which was signed by greater than 10% of voters – the edge for an MP to be faraway from their seat.
The by-election is much like Kingswood in that’s it a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour.
However, the swing wanted by Labour to win the seat is bigger, at 17.9 share factors – in different phrases, the equal of a web change of 18 in each 100 individuals who voted Tory in 2019 switching sides.
This remains to be a smaller swing than those managed by Labour in 2023 on the by-elections in Tamworth, Selby & Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire.
There are 11 candidates standing on this by-election: Nick the Flying Brick (Official Monster Raving Loony), Ana Gunn (Liberal Democrat), Ben Habib (Reform), Helen Harrison (Conservative), Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (no description), Gen Kitchen (Labour), Alex Merola (Britain First), Will Morris (Green), Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent), Marion Turner-Hawes (no description) and Kev Watts (Independent).
The constituency of Wellingborough is being changed on the subsequent normal election by the brand new seat of Wellingborough & Rushden.
Sam Rkaina14 February 2024 18:45
Kingswood profile
Chris Skidmore gained the Gloucestershire constituency for the Conservatives on the previous 4 normal elections, rising his share of the vote on every event, from 40% in 2010 to 49% in 2015, 55% in 2017 and 56% in 2019.
Before 2010, Labour had gained the seat at each normal election since 1992.
This week’s by-election was triggered by Mr Skidmore’s resignation as MP in January, in protest at Government laws to spice up North Sea oil and gasoline drilling.
He had beforehand introduced his intention to face down on the subsequent normal election, when the constituency is being abolished.
Labour got here second within the seat at every of the previous 4 normal elections and is the principle challenger in Thursday’s contest.
To win, the celebration wants a swing within the share of the vote of 11.4 share factors.
This is the equal of a web change of 12 in each 100 individuals who voted Conservative in 2019 switching sides.
It is a a lot smaller swing than those achieved by Labour in its current by-election successes in opposition to the Tories, such as 23.9 share factors at Tamworth, 23.7 factors at Selby & Ainsty and 20.5 factors at Mid Bedfordshire.
There are six candidates standing within the by-election: Sam Bromiley (Conservative), Andrew Brown (Liberal Democrat), Damien Egan (Labour), Lorraine Francis (Green), Rupert Lowe (Reform) and Nicholas Wood (Ukip).
The abolition of the constituency on the subsequent normal election – which has to happen by regulation no later than January 2025 – means whoever wins the by-election will symbolize the seat for just a few months.
Sam Rkaina14 February 2024 17:45
Conservatives have had one by-election achieve this parliament
If the Tories lose one or each of Thursday’s contests, it will convey to 9 or 10 the variety of defeats up to now this parliament: greater than any earlier authorities because the 1966-70 Labour administration of Harold Wilson, which endured 15 losses.
Even accounting for the Conservatives’ one by-election achieve this parliament – successful Hartlepool from Labour in 2021 – a double defeat on Thursday would convey the celebration’s general by-election scorecard to 9 web losses (10 defeats, one achieve).
This would nonetheless be worse than any authorities since 1966-70.
Sam Rkaina14 February 2024 16:45
Defeat might see Tories rack up most byelection defeats in a single parliament since Nineteen Sixties
If the Conservatives lose one or each of Thursday’s by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough, it will imply the Government has clocked up extra by-election defeats in a single parliament than any authorities because the Nineteen Sixties.
The Tories’ present tally of by-election losses because the 2019 normal election is eight: Chesham & Amersham and North Shropshire in 2021 (each gained by the Liberal Democrats); Tiverton & Honiton and Wakefield in 2022 (gained by the Lib Dems and Labour respectively); and Selby & Ainsty, Somerton & Frome, Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth in 2023 (all Labour positive factors besides Somerton & Frome, which was gained by the Lib Dems).
The final authorities to lose this many by-elections throughout a single parliament was the 1992-97 Conservative administration led by John Major.
Matt Mathers14 February 2024 11:39
All the candidates vying for Wellingborough
There are 11 candidates standing on this by-election: Nick the Flying Brick (Official Monster Raving Loony), Ana Gunn (Liberal Democrat), Ben Habib (Reform), Helen Harrison (Conservative), Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (no description), Gen Kitchen (Labour), Alex Merola (Britain First), Will Morris (Green), Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent), Marion Turner-Hawes (no description) and Kev Watts (Independent).
The constituency of Wellingborough is being changed on the subsequent normal election by the brand new seat of Wellingborough & Rushden.
Matt Mathers14 February 2024 11:34
Good afternoon and welcome to The Independent’s dwell protection of the Kingswood and Wellingborough byelections.
Voters go to the polls in each contests on Friday morning, with the outcomes anticipated early on Saturday.
We’ll be reporting on the elections this night, tomorrow and over the weekend – keep tuned for the most recent updates.
Matt Mathers14 February 2024 11:31
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