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Election night time is 2 weeks away. As Vice President Harris and former President Trump sprint to the end line, this week’s forecast appears at their outreach efforts and the most recent proof of a smaller divide between nationwide and state polling.
Plus, rankings modifications in six aggressive House districts.
Harris and Trump meet voters the place they’re
Last week’s Power Rankings confirmed that each events’ coalitions have modified meaningfully since 2020.
Fox News Power Rankings presidential map.
For Democrats, the chief concern is that Harris nonetheless has fewer Black voters in her nook than President Biden.
To assist repair that drawback, the marketing campaign dispatched its strongest surrogate, former President Obama, to Arizona and Nevada, and Harris spent an hour with Charlamagne Tha God to speak about coverage, race, and faith.
Fox News Channel’s interview with Vice President Kamala Harris moderated by “Special Report” anchor Bret Baier drew a whopping 7.1 million viewers, making it the most-watched interview of the 2024 election season. (Fox News Channel)
The Vice President additionally went head-to-head with Fox News’ Bret Baier, a part of an effort by her marketing campaign to border the candidate as powerful and pragmatic. It was Harris’ highest-profile interview but, however it should take one other week earlier than the results present up in polls.
Meanwhile, Trump’s coalition has fewer girls than within the final election, so the previous President participated in a city corridor with Fox News’ Harris Faulkner and an all-female viewers.
“The Faulkner Focus” city corridor that includes former President Trump drew 2.9 million viewers within the 11 a.m. ET timeslot. (Fox News Channel )
Trump additionally continues to seek for younger and working-class voters. His look at a native McDonald’s in Pennsylvania produced some compelling imagery and was designed to color Trump as an lively and likable candidate.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: HARRIS LOSES HER LEAD AND A NEW ELECTORATE EMERGES
Right-wing voters with reservations about Trump might additionally make the distinction on election night time.
That is why Harris spent the start of the week with Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney, who urged conservatives to vote for the Democratic ticket this yr. It additionally explains why there are rumblings about Nikki Haley becoming a member of Trump on the marketing campaign path.
Inefficient vote might maintain Harris within the recreation
Polls present a tight nationwide race…
Two polls of the nationwide standard vote launched final week present a uniquely tight race. Suffolk has Harris one level forward of Trump at 50% to 49%; the Fox News Poll has Trump up by two, with the previous president at 50% and Harris at 48%.
Results like that ought to make this Trump’s race to lose.
In 2020, Biden gained the nationwide vote by 4.5 factors (51%-47%). That translated to very skinny margins of victory within the battleground states. The president gained Georgia, for instance, by 0.2 factors, and his largest victory in any battleground was by 2.8 factors in Michigan.
Close nationwide polls ought to subsequently put Trump within the lead within the battlegrounds. But the statewide polls are shut too.
…and a tight race within the battlegrounds too.
A brand new set of polls present Harris forward by 2-4 factors in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, a tied race in Nevada, and Trump forward by 3 in Arizona and North Carolina (Washington Post/Schar).
The Power Rankings name all these states toss-ups.
Last week, the similar Fox ballot that put Trump forward by two factors nationally had Harris up six factors amongst voters who stay within the battleground states (52%-46%, with a 6.5-point subgroup margin of error).
The newest Fox News nationwide ballot.
Trump’s benefit primarily got here from a bigger share in counties he gained by greater than 10 factors in 2020 (64-35%) than Harris had in counties Biden gained by greater than 10 factors (58-39%).
A TRUMP MYSTERY MAKES ELECTION OUTCOME EVEN MURKIER
The outcomes counsel that Trump might be banking “inefficient vote.” In different phrases, whereas the previous president is performing higher nationally than he was 4 years in the past, the positive factors are concentrated in locations he’s already profitable, like Florida, or rural counties.
While Harris could have misplaced some floor in secure Democratic states like New York, she stays aggressive within the battlegrounds that determine the presidential election.
Other polls have raised the identical query, however essentially the most compelling proof comes from the midterms.
Inefficient Republican vote within the midterms.
Republicans obtained about 3 million extra votes than Democrats within the nationwide House vote (Cook), however eked out a steadiness of energy win, with 222 seats to Democrats’ 213.
Put one other method, the GOP banked a lot of votes in areas the place it didn’t want them, and simply sufficient within the battleground House races that may give them victory (a drawback that has plagued the Democrats within the nationwide vote for years).
The polls are all inside the margin of error, and this is only one concept in regards to the course of the race. But on election night time, a Trump blowout in Florida or a narrower unfold in Virginia could not imply the race is over.
Six House races shift instructions
The House remains to be a toss-up, with 208 seats within the Republican columns, 205 for the Democrats, and 22 districts that would go both method.
Fox News Power Rankings House chamber.
In right this moment’s forecast, six races transfer to new classes:
First, New York’s seventeenth district, within the Hudson Valley, is residence to some of the aggressive races on the map. Incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Lawler has a sturdy bipartisan model in a centrist district. While Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mondaire Jones has tried to go in the identical course, he’s nonetheless dogged by his earlier help for defunding the police and a spat with the Working Families Party (Jones won’t seem on the ballot underneath that social gathering’s title, although the social gathering is now telling voters to help him anyway). This race strikes from Toss Up to Lean R.
House district shifts in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
New York’s 1st district, residence to each the Hamptons and rural farmland on Long Island, stays a aggressive race between Republican Rep. Nick LaLota and the Democrat, former CNN anchor John Avlon. But nearly all of this district’s voters backed Trump in 2020 and 2016, and Avlon has confronted questions over the extent of his residency within the district. The race strikes from Lean R to Likely R.
In the battleground Rust Belt states, a pair of districts held by pro-Trump Republicans have develop into much more aggressive. First, Wisconsin’s third district flipped to Rep. Derrick Van Orden within the midterms by a tight margin. The incumbent’s presence on the U.S. Capitol throughout the January 6 riots is a theme in his opponent’s advertisements. This race strikes from Likely R to Lean R.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s tenth district has been held by Freedom Caucus Rep. Scott Perry since 2013. Perry is the one sitting member of Congress whose cellphone was seized by the FBI in its investigation into efforts to illegally overturn the outcomes of the 2020 presidential election, and that has additionally develop into a theme in tv advertisements. It strikes from Lean R to Toss Up.
House district shifts in Maryland, Nevada, and New York.
Nevada’s third district remains to be the very best alternative for Republicans to flip a seat within the Silver State, however a hotly aggressive presidential race hasn’t to this point translated into downballot success, notably within the Senate race. This district nearly touches Las Vegas, and contains Henderson. That’s favorable territory for Democratic Rep. Susie Lee on this Biden-majority district. She faces Republican Drew Johnson. It strikes from Lean D to Likely D.
Finally, a sleeper race to look at within the northeast: Maryland’s sixth district, the place Democrat April McClain Delaney faces Republican Neil Parrott. This must be secure territory for the left, however the social gathering is investing right here, and even made it a part of one in every of its frontline packages. It strikes from Solid D to Likely D.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics
As an anxious citizens counts all the way down to election night time, the political class is filling the void with information. Some numbers are extra helpful than others.
Harris dominates in fundraising and the bottom recreation. Her marketing campaign raised greater than $1 billion this quarter and greater than double what Trump raised within the final month, and Democrats have a a lot stronger get-out-the-vote operation. These are necessary benefits. In a tight race, they could get Harris over the road. On the opposite hand, Trump has gained with deficits in each areas.
Voters are casting ballots.
Comparing early vote figures to earlier cycles is usually unhelpful. We count on fewer Americans to vote early, Democrats and Republicans are much less more likely to be divided on how they solid ballots, and breakdowns inform us the social gathering registration of some voters, not how they voted.
Finally, since inner polls survey the identical citizens as some other ballot, they’re unlikely to supply a clearly completely different consequence. When they do, folks ought to query whether or not the ballot is an outlier, or whether or not the marketing campaign that paid for the ballot has a motive to characterize the race otherwise.
Two weeks till election night time
Two weeks to go till election night time.
Early voting is underway in each state, with greater than fifteen million voters now casting a ballot.
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Next week, test again for the ultimate Power Rankings forecast.
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