The Hitchhiker’s Guide to potential timing for the Senate and the international aid package

The Senate has now cleared the first barrier to beginning debate on the $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

But how lengthy till there’s a remaining vote?

In brief, this would possibly take some time.

Expect the robust chance of weekend classes and even necessary in a single day votes. It’s attainable this may increasingly not wrap up till subsequent Tuesday – or past.

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To wit:

The Senate overcame a filibuster simply to begin debate on the invoice. From a really technical standpoint, the Senate isn’t on the invoice simply but. Opponents of clearing the filibuster are awarded 30 hours after the vote early right now.

So, except there’s an settlement to velocity issues up, the Senate may vote Friday night round 7 pm ET simply to get on the invoice.

At that stage, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will doubtless “file cloture” to attempt to finish debate on the invoice.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., discusses subsequent steps for the overseas aid package for Ukraine and Israel on the day after the bipartisan Senate border safety invoice collapsed, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2024.  (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

By rule, if Schumer recordsdata on Friday, the Senate can’t vote to overcome the second filibuster till Sunday. “Cloture” (to finish a filibuster) requires an “intervening day” earlier than voting to finish the filibuster. So meaning the Senate can’t vote to break the second filibuster till Sunday. Saturday serves as the “intervening day.”

But that is the place this will get tough.

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By rule, the Senate should vote to crack the second filibuster one hour after the Senate meets on Sunday. This presents “The Super Bowl Scenario.” What the Senate MIGHT do if they’re actually attempting to step on the fuel (and get senators the sport or to watch the Super Bowl), is meet at 12:00:01 am et SUNDAY. The intervening day (Saturday) could have expired. By rule, the Senate can vote at 1:00:01 am ET Sunday to finish debate on the total invoice.

WASHINGTON, DC – FEBRUARY 07: Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) talks to reporters as he walks to his workplace at the U.S. Capitol on February 07, 2024, in Washington, DC. In the fast wake of the failed bipartisan border safety and overseas aid laws, Schumer stated he’ll put up a supplemental spending invoice for aid to Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan up for a vote in a while Wednesday.  (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

However, there’s additionally the “non-Super Bowl” state of affairs right here. We’ll name this the “Ravens-Lions” situation. Say for a second that senators don’t give a care about the Super Bowl. So the Senate would possibly meet at midday or 1 pm et Sunday. By rule, the procedural vote to finish the filibuster would occur one hour after the Senate meets. So simply after 1 pm ET Sunday or 2 pm ET Sunday.

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If the Senate will get 60 votes to break a filibuster, the invoice is on a glidepath to eventual passage. 

But we’re removed from completed.

Opponents of the invoice can require the Senate to deplete to 30 hours after the Senate breaks the filibuster earlier than the Senate can vote on remaining passage.

WASHINGTON, DC – FEBRUARY 07: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) walks to a vote in the Senate Chambers at the U.S. Capitol on February 07, 2024 in Washington, DC. The Senate failed to move laws consisting of immigration and border safety tacked on with overseas aid for Ukraine and Israel.  (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

So, except there’s an settlement, the Senate couldn’t vote on remaining passage of the invoice till Monday night time after 7 pm et or so… or… in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Everything will hinge on when the Senate concludes the procedural vote to finish the filibuster.

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In addition, there’s lot of attention-grabbing stuff to watch in between. Debate. Votes on amendments associated to the border. You identify it. And, it’s fully attainable that the Senate may very well take a number of days of debate and modification votes – and elect to not attempt to break a filibuster and then move the invoice till late subsequent week.

This is all creating proper now.