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The Conservative Party leadership race has entered its last stage, with Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick competing to guide each the occasion and the opposition.
As voting concluded on 31 October, I used to be available to reply questions from Independent readers, highlighting the key variations between the candidates, evaluating seemingly outcomes, and discussing the future of the Conservative Party.
With the winner set to be introduced on 2 November, hypothesis has intensified about which candidate may greatest rejuvenate Conservative assist forward of the subsequent basic election. Both Badenoch and Jenrick align with the occasion’s right-wing, but their distinct leadership kinds and coverage priorities have sparked a vigorous debate amongst MPs and members.
Against a backdrop of current scandals and declining public confidence, the race raises essential questions: Can both candidate successfully bridge occasion divides and, extra importantly, restore public belief?
As members weigh their resolution, many surprise if the new chief will deliver a recent imaginative and prescient to the Conservatives or reinforce a divisive picture that has hampered the occasion’s momentum lately.
Here are 10 Tory leadership questions from Independent readers – and my solutions from the “Ask Me Anything” occasion.
Q: What do you assume of Kemi Badenoch being referred to as the “new Thatcher”?
Brabinger Smythes Marlow
A: It’s attention-grabbing that the Conservative Party continues to be obsessive about Margaret Thatcher; maybe no shock, as she did win three basic elections. Styling your self as Thatcher Mark Two doesn’t work. Liz Truss received the Tory leadership nevertheless it didn’t make her PM.
Kemi Badenoch has praised Thatcher for smashing the glass ceiling. They have some issues in widespread akin to their plain talking. But Badenoch has an extended approach to go earlier than she will be able to inherit the Thatcher mantle. She continues to be at a comparatively early stage of her profession.
Q: Where is the centrist candidate on this race? Was it a failed technique by MPs that led us to this last two?
RoysRolls
A: I feel it’s a disgrace there’s not a wider selection for Tory occasion members, who’ve two right-wingers on the poll paper. A robust centrist candidate was accessible in James Cleverly. He carried out effectively at the Tory convention and I anticipated him to make the run-off, most likely towards Robert Jenrick.
But there was some humorous enterprise in the last spherical of voting amongst Tory MPs. We can’t know for positive because it was a secret poll, however plainly some Cleverly supporters thought he was assured of a spot in the last two and so voted for both Jenrick or Badenoch in the hope of knocking the different one out. Cleverly’s vote went down and so they knocked out their very own man! Not so Cleverly.
Q: What’s the distinction between the two candidates?
BBenB
A: It’s true that they’re each on the occasion’s proper, although Kemi Badenoch has additionally received assist from some centrist and One Nation Tories. The basic distinction between the two runners is that Robert Jenrick has argued the new chief should spell out some key insurance policies now, saying occasion members need “a plan today rather than the promise of one tomorrow.”
In distinction, Badenoch argues that the Tories must regain the belief of the British folks and talk about what the occasion stands for earlier than making a coverage provide for the 2029 basic election. She desires to unite the occasion round a set of Conservative rules, akin to a smaller state, private accountability, the household and lively citizenship.
Q: Where do Badenoch and Jenrick stand on points like immigration, international coverage, and the economic system?
SimonL
A: Robert Jenrick has put his pledge to take the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) at the entrance and centre of his marketing campaign. The former immigration minister argues that is the solely approach to sort out unlawful migration. His line is uncompromising: members of his shadow cupboard and Tory candidates at the subsequent basic election could be compelled to assist this coverage.
Kemi Badenoch thinks the UK should depart the ECHR however is aware of the difficulty divides the Tory occasion. She is interesting to centrist members by taking a extra cautious method than Jenrick. She factors out that leaving the ECHR wouldn’t essentially be a silver bullet, saying that it’s entangled with the Good Friday Agreement which introduced peace to Northern Ireland.
On the economic system, Jenrick has mentioned that shaving £12bn off the welfare funds by imposing harder circumstances on profit claimants would enable the 20p primary price of earnings tax to be lower by 2p, however has stopped quick of a particular pledge. Badenoch has been extra cautious about making coverage commitments at this stage.
Foreign coverage has not featured a lot in the leadership marketing campaign.
Q: Are the Tories actually contemplating Robert Jenrick for leadership, or is he seen as an opportunist?Swordfish
A: Kemi Badenoch is the favorite however the face is perhaps nearer than anticipated. To the frustration of the broadcasters, she had largely prevented media interviews – other than on GB News, of course – however in the previous week has given a flurry of them. This has fuelled hypothesis in Tory land that the contest may very well be tight and the turnout low.
So Jenrick’s probabilities can’t be written off, despite the fact that his Tory critics view him as an opportunist who has travelled far since he supported Remain in the 2016 EU referendum. He insists his views haven’t modified however have been fashioned by his expertise in authorities, notably as immigration minister.
Q: Do candidates realise that specializing in Tory members may alienate basic voters?
RebootedyetagainHans2
A: I think the candidates would reply: “We have a leadership election to win first.” But I’m disenchanted there hasn’t been extra of a debate on this contest about how you can win again the voters the Tories misplaced to the Liberal Democrats and Labour. The Tories appear in denial about that and far happier speaking about wooing the supporters who went to Reform UK.
The new Tory chief might want to escape of the occasion’s consolation zone, enchantment to the nation shortly and discuss points akin to public providers in addition to enjoying the previous tunes on immigration and tax cuts. First impressions matter: William Hague by no means actually recovered after being pictured sporting a baseball cap along with his identify on it after changing into Tory chief in 1997.
Q: Will the Tories be again in energy anytime quickly?
Ambigirls
A: I don’t write off the Tories’ probabilities at the subsequent basic election. True, they’ve a mountain to climb after the worst end result of their historical past in July. But Keir Starmer confronted an analogous job when he grew to become Labour chief and lots of doubted he may win the following election.
Voters are unstable and conventional tribal loyalties have been damaged. Labour’s and Starmer’s opinion ballot scores have already plummeted. Although the Tories are the official opposition, it’s not a given they are going to be the most important beneficiary if Labour is unpopular; they might want to earn the public’s respect and belief. The Tories will face stiff competitors from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
Q: Can Badenoch unite a divided Tory occasion?
Fru T-Bunn
A: Kemi Badenoch is definitely the favorite however the end result may very well be nearer than many individuals count on. I agree that there isn’t any assure the winner will lead the Tories into the subsequent basic election. If the new chief isn’t doing effectively in two years, Tory MPs may power yet one more leadership contest, although I think the guidelines is perhaps modified to make it tougher to set off a vote of confidence in the chief. Tory MPs have type, after forcing out Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss after they misplaced their confidence. So it’s doable now we have one other leadership election, and even that the Tories choose they made a mistake by not selecting James Cleverly this time.
Badenoch’s abrasive type and skill to start out a battle in an empty room will surely make her leadership attention-grabbing to look at for folks like me. There’s a danger she could be a divisive determine who didn’t unite a celebration fairly succesful of inventing new factions even when it has solely 121 MPs. In current days, Badenoch has admitted she may be abrasive and hinted at a softer method. If she directs her pure aggression at Labour and the media, her occasion may prefer it, and rally behind her.
Q: Can you give an instance of a Conservative or Labour chief of the Opposition who didn’t take their occasion right into a basic election?
Chas999
A: The first one who involves thoughts is John Smith. He succeeded Neil Kinnock as Labour chief after the 1992 election however tragically died of a coronary heart assault in 1994. Smith was vastly revered and would virtually definitely have grow to be PM at the 1997 election as John Major’s Tories had been unpopular and the occasion had been in energy for 18 years. There’s nonetheless a debate inside Labour immediately about whether or not Smith would have received the landslide his successor Tony Blair did or gone on to win extra elections after that like Blair.
Also, Iain Duncan Smith grew to become Tory chief of the opposition in 2001, however misplaced the confidence of his MPs and was deposed in a coup (orchestrated by the Tory whips workplace) two years later. The occasion turned to Michael Howard, anointing him as chief in a coronation relatively than a leadership contest and he led it at the 2005 election.
Q: Is it over for Jenrick? Could Badenoch soften her stance to unite the occasion if elected?
Jimmy
A: It’s not over till we get the end result at about 11am on Saturday, although Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner. Whatever her intentions, I feel she may discover it arduous in observe to “soften her edges.” She admits her outspoken feedback usually shock even her personal aides. In media interviews, she speaks her thoughts and it typically lands her in sizzling water – as did her current remarks about maternity depart and the nationwide minimal wage.
Badenoch appears to imagine (wrongly, I feel) that the media is out to get her. If she turns into the occasion chief, she might want to learn to use the media. In opposition, you may’t implement any insurance policies, so the media is mainly all you’ve got.
Badenoch is perhaps tempted to woo Tory voters who defected to Reform UK – and the many who didn’t vote in July – however she would most likely come to grasp her occasion must win an election from the centre floor – which each she and Robert Jenrick favor to name “the common ground” (copyright Keith Joseph in the Thatcher period) in order to not offend the Tory proper.
These questions and solutions had been half of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by Andrew Grice at 12pm GMT on Thursday 31 September. Some of the questions and solutions have been edited for this text. You can learn the full dialogue in the feedback part of the unique article.
For extra UK politics perception, try the weekly Commons Confidential e-newsletter from my colleague John Rentoul. The e mail, unique to Independent Premium subscribers, takes you behind the curtain of Westminster. If this seems like one thing you’d be all in favour of, head right here to search out out extra.
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