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The crack of Louisville Slugger ash bats connecting with rawhide baseballs laced in Costa Rica will quickly echo all through ballparks throughout North America.
A dulcet-toned announcer will lunge ahead from his seat in the press field, perched three tiers above house plate. The announcer will squint, trying to see if the ball hooks simply inside the foul pole a number of hundred ft away down the proper subject line.
“Going! Going! Gone!” he’ll chirp as the ball hugs the pole, staying simply truthful. The ball then caroms wildly, round an array of seats, concrete and fumbling followers, bouncing prefer it’s been triggered by a paddle in an arcade pinball machine.
Perhaps the House of Representatives might rent a few of these baseball announcers right here on Capitol Hill.
WHITE HOUSE BLASTS HOUSE GOP BUDGET, SAYS BIDEN WON’T LET THEM ‘DEFUND THE POLICE’
It’s fairly potential the Republican House majority is “going, going.” Gone is one other query. But the situation of Democrats seizing management of the House is rising as a definite risk.
Control of the House of Representatives has by no means flipped in the center of a Congress.
But if it’s going to occur, the 118th Congress is as ripe for that risk.
House Republicans face chaos of their convention. Members who deliberate to retire subsequent January at the moment are ditching Capitol Hill early. The House is an acrimonious place with yet one more transfer afoot to dethrone the Speaker. FOX is advised that different Republicans are angling to get out as quickly as they will. An enormous payday in the non-public sector might lure some members to money of their voting playing cards early.
First, let’s discuss the size of a given “Congress.”
Congress is named “Congress” as a result of that’s when House members and senators convene in Washington. The phrase “Congress” means “coming together.” So lawmakers are right here at the Capitol for the 118th time since beginning the 1st Congress in 1789 at Federal Hall in New York City. Voters elected House members and a couple of third of all senators to the current 118th Congress in November 2022. Each “Congress” begins at midday ET on January 3 and runs till 11:59 am et on January 3 two years later. So the 118th Congress launched on January 3 of 2023. It expires in the late morning of January 3 subsequent 12 months. Thus, the time period of all House members which started final 12 months runs out at the identical time subsequent January. Those elected this November will serve in the 119th Congress starting subsequent January 3.
House Republicans thought they may have a 50-seat majority in January 2023. They gained management of the House – however solely by a handful of seats. The meager majority then dithered for 5 days before lastly electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as their chief.
The rancorous Speaker’s race foreshadowed what was to come back.
CONGRESSIONAL DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION OFFICE SHUT DOWN BY $1.2T GOVERNMENT FUNDING DEAL
McCarthy was executed by October. The House burned greater than three weeks electing House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., as McCarthy’s successor. Now Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has had sufficient of Johnson. She’s authored a decision to take away the Louisiana Republican for his “betrayal” of House Republicans on the newest spending invoice. The House wound up passing the invoice with 185 Democratic yeas – however solely 101 Republican ayes. Plus Johnson violated the GOP’s inside rule which supplies members a full three days to learn laws before voting.
Text of the invoice appeared simply before 3 am ET final Thursday. The House closed the vote on the invoice at 11:45 am et final Friday.
Johnson signaled before the vote that he won’t grant lawmakers the requisite three days to course of their laws.
“There’s nothing sacred about 72 hours. The idea is you want the legislation to be reviewed adequately by the members before they vote on it. We’re the party that believes in that principle. We’re trying to maintain it even in a time crunch,” mentioned Johnson as he darted throughout Statuary Hall of the Capitol.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, left, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, proper. (Getty Images)
And but Johnson gave up on the rule so the House might approve the invoice before a looming authorities shutdown deadline.
Johnson’s gambit infuriated the proper. But different Republicans weren’t upset. Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., needed to waive the rule, including that the House shouldn’t assign a vote “to a time.” Murphy was able to vote proper away.
“What is this? A test?” requested Murphy. “Read faster.”
But Greene was by means of with Johnson. She ready to indicate the Speaker the door after the House authorized the spending measure.
“I do not wish to inflict pain on our conference and throw the House into chaos,” mentioned Greene. “But I am saying the clock has started. It’s time for our conference to choose a new Speaker.”
But Greene won’t even get the probability besides Johnson. It will not be out of the realm of risk that the House might flip management to the Democrats before 11:59 am et subsequent January third. In different phrases, throughout this Congress.
It’s about the math.
Former Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., resigned final Friday. Buck hit the door after refusing to vote to question Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., additionally refused to question Mayorkas. Gallagher initially deliberate to remain till January. But now the Wisconsin Republican departs on April 19. That’s instantly after the date which mandates a particular election in Wisconsin. But since Gallagher checks out in mid-April, the seat stays empty till after the election.
So after Bucks’s resignation, the House breakdown appears to be like like this: 431 members. 218 Republicans. 213 Democrats. A margin of 5 seats. But the GOP can solely lose two votes on any given situation with out help from the different aspect. After Gallagher leaves, the breakdown slips to 430 members with 217 Republicans and 213 Democrats. That’s a four-seat margin. But the GOP can solely lose one vote then. By rule, tie votes lose in the House.
And issues develop even darker for Republicans.
There’s a particular election in western New York in late April to switch former Rep. Brian Higgins, D-N.Y., who additionally retired early. Democrats are anticipated to carry that seat. So, for our functions, rating that as a web pickup of 1 for the Democrats. That means the House would have 431 members. But 216 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
Republicans could safe a bit respiration room after a May 21 particular election runoff in California to succeed McCarthy. That seat probably goes to the GOP.
But FOX is advised different Republicans are fed up and will depart before the finish of the Congress. Some are simply exasperated. Others don’t need to be right here for the presidential election and face reporters peppering them in the halls with questions on the newest feedback from former President Trump. Others have had it with their colleagues.
The Senate flipped management from Republicans to Democrats halfway by means of the 107th Congress in 2001. In truth, there was one bizarre anomaly in the Senate in the Fifties. Democrats had extra seats than Republicans at one level – however remained in the “minority.” But the House has by no means modified management mid-Congress.
“House Republicans do have to be worried about holding their majority,” mentioned Darrell West of the Brookings Institution. “It would be extraordinarily unusual. I mean, stuff like that just does not happen. But it shows the extent of the dysfunction – the divisions within the Republican House caucus.”
This is why House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., characterised House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., as the “leader of the Congress” final week.
“His title may not be Speaker of the House,” mentioned Aguilar. “But he has the votes. He has the confidence of a significant portion of members.”
But, if just a few extra Republicans step down? At this charge, Jeffries could possibly be Speaker of the House before it’s throughout.
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Somewhere, you’ll be able to hear the crack of the bat. Is the Republican majority going, going, gone?
Unpack your binoculars. Follow the flight of the ball. And watch what unfolds over the subsequent couple of months.
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