State of the Race: Six key Senate seats Republicans look to flip in 2024

Republicans are gearing up for what may very well be an epic showdown for majority management of the Senate with a number of contentious elections round the nation later this yr.

Democrats management the U.S. Senate with a 51-49 majority, however Republicans are trying at a positive Senate map in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Three of these seats are in pink states former Donald Trump carried in 2020 — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

Five different seats, one of which is held by an impartial, are in key swing states narrowly carried by President Biden in 2020 — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Texas and Florida, the place incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively, are looking for re-election, seem to be the solely doubtlessly aggressive GOP-held seats up for grabs subsequent yr.

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From left to proper: Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy; Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc.; Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio; Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake; and Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick. (Getty Images)

Ohio

Longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is the solely member of his get together to win a non-judicial, statewide election in Ohio in the previous decade. As Brown runs in 2024 for a fourth six-year time period representing Ohio, he’s dealing with heavy concentrating on by Republicans in the state that was as soon as a premier normal election battleground however has shifted pink over the previous six years.

Trump carried Ohio by eight factors in his 2016 presidential election victory and his 2020 re-election defeat. Last yr, Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Ohio, Sen. JD Vance, topped longtime Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by six factors regardless of Ryan operating what political specialists thought of a virtually flawless marketing campaign.

Brown, who has served as a congressman, state lawmaker and Ohio secretary of state throughout his almost half-century profession in politics, has reportedly raked in $5.7 million in the first two months of 2024, giving his marketing campaign $13.5 million readily available.

Two Republicans who ran unsuccessfully towards Vance for the 2022 GOP Senate nomination in Ohio — state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno — are in the race to oust Brown.

Dolan, a former high county prosecutor and Ohio assistant legal professional normal, launched his marketing campaign in January 2023. Dolan, whose household owns Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Guardians, shelled out thousands and thousands of his personal cash to run advertisements for his 2022 Senate bid.

He surged close to the finish of the major race, ending third in a crowded area of Republican contenders, profitable almost 1 / 4 of the vote.

Moreno, a profitable Cleveland-based businessman and luxurious auto dealership magnate, declared his candidacy in April. An immigrant who arrived in the U.S. legally from Colombia along with his household as a 5-year-old boy, Moreno additionally shelled out thousands and thousands of his personal cash to run TV commercials to try to enhance his first Senate bid. But he suspended his marketing campaign in February 2022 after requesting and holding a non-public assembly with Trump.

In July, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose joined the race, launching a much-anticipated Senate marketing campaign. The state’s major election is scheduled for March 19.

Ohio GOP Senate candidates Matt Dolan, Frank LaRose and Bernie Moreno are vying for his or her get together’s nomination in the state’s March 19 major. (AP)

Montana

Democrats breathed a sigh of reduction when Sen. Jon Tester of Montana introduced earlier this yr that he would search re-election in 2024 in a state Trump carried by 16 factors in the 2020 presidential election. The Democratic incumbent, who’s operating unopposed, had hauled in a formidable $15 million in fundraising as of the finish of 2023.

Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient who notched greater than 200 missions in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere round the globe, launched a Republican Senate bid in late June.

Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a Montana-based aerial firefighting and wildfire surveillance providers firm, enjoys the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) backing and acquired an endorsement from Trump final month.

Sheehy will face off towards 4 different GOP hopefuls, together with former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson, in the state’s June 4 major election.

Rep. Matt Rosendale, a hard-right congressman, had initially launched a bid for the Senate seat earlier than withdrawing from the race.

Following his withdrawal, Rosendale, who narrowly misplaced to Tester in the 2018 Senate election, stated he would search re-election in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District. That plan, nonetheless, was halted final week when Rosendale introduced he was suspending his House marketing campaign, citing “current attacks” towards him.

The marketing campaign for Tester, who’s operating unopposed, introduced it had hauled in $15 million at the finish of 2023. (Getty Images )

West Virginia

With Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., not looking for re-election, the race for the Senate in West Virginia is trying brighter for Republicans as they search to flip the seat from blue to pink.

Last yr, NRSC Chairman Sen. Steve Daines stated, “We like our odds in West Virginia.”

Right now, the principal motion is in the Republican Senate major, the place fashionable Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice has the backing of the NRSC and Trump. Among Justice’s six Republican challengers, the main rival for the GOP Senate nomination is GOP Rep. Alex Mooney, who represents the state’s 2nd Congressional District and has acquired help from the fiscally conservative Club for Growth.

The first Democrat to soar into the race following Manchin’s departure was 32-year-old Zachary Shrewsbury, a local West Virginian and Marine Corps veteran. Two different Democrats — Don Blankenship and Glenn Elliott — are additionally operating.

Manchin introduced in November he wouldn’t be looking for re-election to his publish in the higher chamber, saying in a video posted to X he believes he “accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia” throughout his tenure in the Senate. Manchin, who beforehand served as governor of the state, was first elected to the Senate to signify West Virginia in a 2010 particular election.

The state’s major election is slated to happen May 14.

Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., left, and Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, proper. (Getty/AP Photo/Chris Jackson)

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., is trying to retain her publish in the higher chamber and clinch a 3rd time period in workplace.

Baldwin, who introduced her candidacy in the race final April, has represented the Badger State in the Senate since 2013. She beforehand served in the Wisconsin State Assembly and represented the state’s 2nd Congressional District in the House from 1999 to 2013.

Running unopposed, Baldwin has acquired robust help from her get together on a state and nationwide stage. However, Republicans are keen to make an try to win the seat this cycle.

GOP businessman and actual property mogul Eric Hovde launched his bid for the Senate in February and shortly turned a goal for Democrats as the get together seeks to keep management of the seat.

The Senate Majority PAC went up with a $2 million advert purchase final week concentrating on Hovde as a “multi-millionaire California banker.” The advert tried to painting Hovde as an “out-of-touch carpetbagger” whose pursuits do not align with these of the Wisconsin constituency.

Recognizing the advert marketing campaign, Mike Berg, the communications director for the NRSC, wrote on X: “How bad are @TammyBaldwin and @SenSchumer panicking about @EricHovde?”

Hovde beforehand ran in 2012 however misplaced in the GOP major to former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin went on to win the normal election that yr.

Hovde formally launched his bid for the U.S. Senate in February. (Eric Hovde marketing campaign)

Arizona

With Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement that she will not search re-election, the highlight for the Senate race in the battleground state of Arizona has shifted to two distinguished candidates — Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat who represents the state’s third Congressional District, and Republican Kari Lake, who beforehand made a run for governor of the state in 2022.

It was reported earlier this yr that Gallego, the high Democrat looking for the Senate seat, had raised $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Since launching his bid for the seat in January 2023, Gallego’s marketing campaign reported elevating $13 million earlier this yr.

Lake, a former TV information anchor who has been endorsed by a number of main Senate Republicans and Trump, immediately turned the GOP frontrunner when she jumped into the race final October.

Politico reported in January that Lake had “raised $2 million in the roughly 11 weeks after she entered the race, but she quickly spent nearly half that haul,” leaving her with a “little over $1 million in the bank — and $308,000 in debt” to begin 2024.

Prior to Lake coming into the race, Mark Lamb, a Republican who serves as sheriff for Pinal County, filed paperwork to run for the seat final April. Seven different Republicans are additionally looking for their get together’s nomination for the seat in the state’s July 30 major election.

From left to proper: Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb; Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz.; and former Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. (Getty Images)

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State, a perennial normal election battleground, will doubtless reside up to its fame as soon as once more in 2024 because it holds what is going to arguably be one of the best and costly Senate races in the nation.

Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat who served a decade as the state’s auditor normal after which treasurer earlier than first profitable election to the Senate in 2006, is looking for a fourth six-year time period in workplace.

Casey, who will not be anticipated to face any critical Democratic major problem, is the son of a well-liked former governor.

Republicans seem united behind Dave McCormick, who’s making his second straight Senate run. McCormick narrowly misplaced the state’s 2022 GOP Senate major election to Dr. Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose in the normal election to former Braddock Mayor John Fetterman.

McCormick, a former hedge fund government, West Point graduate, Gulf War fight veteran and Treasury Department official in former President George W. Bush’s administration, was endorsed by the Pennsylvania GOP in late September, quickly after he entered the race.

Casey, a Democrat who first received election to the Senate in 2006, is looking for a fourth six-year time period in workplace. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc by way of Getty Images)

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Axios reported in January that McCormick had raised $5.4 million in his first quarter as a candidate. Casey’s marketing campaign introduced at the starting of the yr that it had raised greater than $3.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

McCormick had been courted by nationwide and state Republicans to run, and his candidacy offers the GOP a high-profile candidate with the capability to finance his personal race.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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