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From late summer season of 2020, the Welsh authorities used pc modelling by specialists from Swansea University to attempt to predict the severity of future Covid waves and check out to take a look at the consequences varied counter-measures. So, for instance, if ministers have been considering of fixing guidelines about mixing or hospitality – this could be fed into an excellent pc which might attempt to plot what influence it could have on an infection charges. Before introducing the autumn firebreak the modelling was used to see to what extent it could carry an infection charges down. Prof Michael Gravenor, who led the modelling staff, mentioned finally the two-week firebreak labored and it took 39 days for infections to return to pre-firebreak ranges. With hindsight, he mentioned an extended firebreak would have been far more efficient in suppressing the second wave additional into winter. This contrasts the sooner proof of Dr Salmon who mentioned that firebreak was “hard to justify”.
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