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Voters are casting ballots as we speak in South Carolina, the final of the main early states to select a Republican nominee for president earlier than Super Tuesday.
Former President Donald Trump has maintained a constant and commanding polling lead, whereas the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley, will strive to show that she is a viable candidate with a aggressive efficiency.
She will want to win at the very least in Charleston and Richland to clear that bar, whereas Trump will probably be trying to sweep the remainder of the state.
Greenville and Spartanburg are battlegrounds to watch
Two counties in upstate South Carolina, Greenville and Spartanburg, add up to about 16% of the registered voter inhabitants of the state.
Former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former President Donald Trump. (Getty Images)
Like the general area, these two counties are additionally closely White and evangelical.
As we noticed in Iowa, these voters favor Trump by large margins, and the newest polling in South Carolina suggests they are going to vote equally right here as we speak.
When Trump first ran for president in 2016, he had two main opponents in the Palmetto State: Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.
Both candidates put up a severe fight in these two counties. In Greenville, they took 24.5% of the vote every; Trump gained general with 26.7%.
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Cruz, who courted the evangelical vote all through his run, took 24.5% in Spartanburg, whereas Rubio acquired 22.9%. Trump gained with 32.6%.
The outcomes from current primaries and polling counsel that the majority of the Cruz voters have discovered a new house with Trump.
Therefore, to win the state, Trump will look to take house at the very least a comparable share of the vote in the upstate area as the mixed share that he and Cruz took in 2016. For a efficiency consistent with polling expectations, and with all different issues being equal, he’ll search for one thing in the space of 65-75%.
With such an evangelical tilt, Haley shouldn’t be probably to be very aggressive right here.
Charleston and Richland ought to be extra favorable to Haley than different components of the state
In line together with her technique in New Hampshire, Haley will look to win in extremely populated city and suburban areas.
Charleston and Richland, which make up about 16% of the general statewide vote, are at the prime of the listing.
Charleston County is house to the metropolis of the identical identify, which can be the most populated metropolis in the state. Richland County comprises Columbia, the state’s capital and residential of the University of South Carolina.
In 2016, these have been the solely counties where Rubio eked out a win.
They are additionally extra prosperous than most different components of the state, and have extra voters with a faculty diploma; two of Haley’s key constituencies.
Polling reveals Haley working behind Trump however remaining aggressive in these cities. The former hometown governor will want to do higher than that to make this a race.
The higher Haley does in these areas, the higher the likelihood that Haley will go away South Carolina with at the very least some delegates. That’s as a result of, as well as to 29 statewide delegates, the state awards three delegates to the winner of the vote in every of its seven congressional districts.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is working in opposition to former President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. Trump is working for a second time period regardless of dealing with a number of authorized fronts. (Getty Images)
Trump continues to dominate in rural areas
Some of Trump’s greatest performances in the 2016 Republican primary got here from very small, rural counties.
He acquired greater than 40% of the vote in 13 counties, ten of which had populations of lower than 50,000 individuals.
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Look to locations like Lee County, in central South Carolina, where Trump took house 47% of the vote, beating closest rival Cruz by 25 factors. Lee County’s inhabitants is about 16,000 individuals and dropping.
Head south to Allendale County, house to lower than 8,000 South Carolinians. Trump acquired 44% there, beating the second place candidate, Rubio, by 19 factors. Its inhabitants can be declining.
He acquired between 30% and 40% of the vote in one other 27 counties, about half of which had populations of lower than 50,000.
And that was in a race with two in style challengers, at a time when Trump had not but persuaded the base that he had the proper conservative credentials.
Collectively, these rural areas signify a highly effective a part of the general statewide vote in South Carolina.
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To win, Trump will look to deliver out as many votes as attainable.
Special protection begins at 7PM ET on Fox News Channel
All polls shut in South Carolina at 7 p.m. ET. Expect to see an early vote reported first in most areas; that vote will probably favor Haley.
Special protection on Fox News Channel additionally begins at 7, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.
Stay tuned for insights from our best-in-class Fox News Voter Analysis and the Fox News Decision Desk, which can name this race.
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