Conservatives are in “deep, deep electoral trouble” says country’s most senior pollster

Sign up for the View from Westminster electronic mail for knowledgeable evaluation straight to your inbox

Get our free View from Westminster electronic mail

Top polling guru Sir John Curtice has despatched the Conservatives a stark warning following their catastrophe double by-election defeat, stating the occasion is in “deep, deep electoral trouble”.

Sir John advised the BBCthat though the 21-point drop in Kingswood is in line with what the occasion are at the moment struggling in the opinion polls, it’s the Wellingborough results of 37-38 factors that’s “the biggest Tory loss the Conservatives have ever managed to suffer in a post-war by-election”.

The pollster acknowledged that the “circumstances around Peter Bone’s downfall” might have added to the losses, however that “this morning, we are still looking at a government that, at the moment, is staring defeat in the face”.

Sir John mentioned: “[This] confirms that the Conservatives are still in deep, deep electoral trouble.

“The 21 point drop in support in Kingswood in line with the 19-20 point drop that they’re currently suffering in the opinion polls.

“The 37 to 38 points drop in Wellingborough is actually the biggest Tory loss the Conservatives have ever manage to suffer in a post war by election.”

He added: “Now, it may well be that the circumstances surrounding Peter Bone’s downfall and his replacement by his partner perhaps added to the lead party’s woes in Wellingborough, but there is no gainsaying the fact that this morning we are still looking at a government that, at the moment, is staring defeat in the face of the next general election.”

Mr Bone acquired a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry discovered he had subjected a workers member to bullying and sexual misconduct.

The Conservatives confronted two crushing by-election outcomes in a single day, as Labour overturned enormous Tory majorities in Kingswood and Wellingborough.

In the Kingswood contest, Damien Egan overturned an 11,000 Tory majority, successful with a majority of two,501 votes, whereas the Wellingborough by-election noticed disgraced former Conservative MP Peter Bone changed with Labour’s Gen Kitchen, who secured 13,844 votes to beat the Tories’ by greater than 6,000.

The back-to-back losses place extra stress on Rishi Sunak, as robust performances in each constituencies by the right-wing challenger occasion Reform UK are more likely to embolden occasion critics in regards to the prime minister’s course.

The outcomes come simply hours after official figures present that Britain has fallen right into a recession, after financial progress had stalled as gross home product (GDP) fell by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, following a decline of 0.1 per cent in the earlier three months.

Tory former enterprise secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg mentioned the Conservatives wanted to “learn from the result” in Kingswood.

He mentioned: “I think we should learn from this result and look at what happened with the Reform Party vote. Conservative Party votes are most likely to come from people who stay at home or who voted Reform.”

He urged the occasion lower taxes, pull again from internet zero measures and “take more of the advantages of Brexit”.

More follows…