What is the rail dispute all about and when will the next strikes be?

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Nine out of 10 of the practice drivers balloted for continued industrial motion over the next six months have voted to strike.

They are members of the Aslef union, which is concerned in a 19-month-long marketing campaign of business motion in a long-running dispute over pay and circumstances.

Aslef says its members on Chiltern, C2C, East Midlands Railway, Northern and TransPennine Express overwhelmingly backed persevering with with walk-outs, which started in July 2022.

Unions concerned in disputes should reballot members each six months on persevering with with industrial motion.

The employers are the 14 practice operators in England whose operations are managed by the authorities and who belong to the Rail Delivery Group.

Last April, rail companies and ministers made what they are saying is a good pay provide for 2022 and 2023, topic to coach drivers accepting radical reforms of how they work.

It would take the common wage of a practice driver for a four-day, 35-hour week from £60,000 to £65,000.

Mick Whelan, normal secretary of Aslef, says the poll outcomes characterize clear rejection of that with-strings pay deal.

But the union boss is additionally providing an olive department of types to ministers and the employers, saying: “We remain open and willing, as ever, to talk about a revised offer.”

Could a settlement be agreed – and can passengers plan journeys with any certainty? These are the key questions and solutions.

Which rail companies are concerned?

Aslef is in dispute with the practice operators which are contracted by the authorities to offer rail companies. In addition to the 5 practice operators the place drivers have simply voted for extra strikes (above), the firms are:

Is this simply about cash?

No. Were the dispute merely a query of the proportion pay improve practice drivers ought to get, it could in all probability have been settled months in the past – or by no means reached the stage of business motion.

But with the annual public subsidy operating at round £2 billion greater than regular as a result of the collapse in fare income since the pandemic, the authorities goals to attain wide-ranging reforms throughout the railway – akin to making Sunday a part of the regular working week for all employees.

The goals are enshrined in the 2021 Rail Industry Recovery Group framework. The doc says: “There are many working arrangements which need to be updated to cater for a 21st century railway to ensure that it is sustainable.”

Issues embody:

Why are these unacceptable to Aslef?

The practice drivers’ union says it is open to dialogue on phrases and circumstances. Indeed, its constitution requires “the elimination of institutionalised overtime” which might require seven-day working to change into the norm.

But historically Aslef has at all times “sold” reforms to working preparations for an additional few per cent on their pay.

The employers – who’re depending on ministers signing off any eventual settlement – say this is unimaginable and that even a modest pay improve is contingent on radical modifications to long-standing working preparations in an effort to cut back prices.

In addition, Aslef has some crimson traces: the union is firmly in opposition to any extension of so-called “driver-only operation”.

What occurs next?

The image is murky, as a result of practice drivers working for 2 rail companies, LNER and Northern, will stroll out on unrelated strikes on Friday 1 March. The industrial motion has been referred to as for what Aslef described as the practice operators’ “persistent failure to comply with existing agreements” and is unrelated to the wider dispute.

At the similar time, an olive department seems to have been prolonged by Mick Whelan, normal secretary of Aslef.

“We are asking the secretary of state for transport, or the rail minister Huw Merriman, to come and meet us,” Mr Whelan stated.

“Let’s sit around the table and negotiate. You don’t want any more strikes, and we do not want to be forced to take any more industrial action, although we have the renewed mandates to do just that.”

What may an settlement appear to be?

It would intently resemble the deal put to the bigger rail union, the RMT, which was overwhelmingly accredited by members.

As a outcome the RMT has ended its industrial motion (for now). The 14 practice operators, represented by the Rail Delivery Group (RDG), provided 5 per cent for 2022 and 4 per cent for 2023. Further pay awards, negotiated with every practice operator, will be provided in return for agreements to reform working practices.

Why don’t the employers and ministers provide one thing related?

The practice operators would probably be proud of such a deal, however the money must come from the taxpayer in the type of increased subsidies.

Some in the rail trade consider that the dispute has now change into deeply political, with the authorities seeing persevering with rail strikes by staff who’re comparatively properly paid as a possible election challenge.

Legislation now permits the transport secretary to stipulate minimal service ranges (MSLs) on strike days amounting to 40 per cent of the regular service. No practice operator has to this point imposed the new legislation on the practice drivers’ union.

The prime minister is stated to be “disappointed” that practice operators didn’t implement minimal service ranges throughout the final nationwide industrial motion. In addition, Mr Sunakis famous for his disdain for the rail trade.

Mick Whelan has informed The Independent that the dispute might not be solved till a distinct authorities is in energy. In November 2023 he stated: “When you’ve waited the best part of six or seven months or more, for someone to talk to you to solve what they claim is a major situation that needs to be resolved, but they make no overtures to do it, you have to assume that they don’t want to do it in this parliament.”

When will the next strikes happen?

Train drivers at LNER and Northern will stroll out on Friday 1 March, in separate disputes. Hundreds of trains will be cancelled because of the strikes. In addition, an time beyond regulation ban will apply on the earlier and following days, Thursday 29 February and Saturday 2 March.

Previous expertise of strikes means that Northern will cancel all trains on 1 March, whereas LNER will run a skeleton service with lowered hours between London King’s Cross and Edinburgh by way of York and Newcastle.

Some journeys will nonetheless be potential on different practice operators that cowl the similar routes, akin to Hull Trains between London and Hull and TransPennine Express between Manchester and Leeds.

On the days affected by the time beyond regulation ban, Northern is more likely to cancel a major proportion of trains whereas LNER might cancel or curtail some companies.

More extensively, no passenger who relies on the 14 practice operators concerned in the dispute can plan greater than two weeks forward – since this is the minimal discover required from trades unions for strike motion.

Having stated that, The Independent understands that there are at the moment no plans to name additional nationwide industrial motion till after Easter.

If, although, no progress is made in negotiations by April, additional strikes in early summer time are on the playing cards.