Train strikes 2024: What is the latest update and what happens subsequent?

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Since nationwide rail strikes started in the summer time of 2022, a whole bunch of thousands and thousands of journeys have been cancelled. Billions of kilos have been misplaced to the UK financial system, notably hospitality companies – and taxpayers are subsidising an increasingly decrepit and unreliable railway to the tune of £90 per second on prime of the regular subsidy.

After the latest spherical of commercial motion by prepare drivers belonging to the Aslef union, the solely certainty is that extra walk-outs will observe.

Over the previous 19 months of strikes, there was zero progress in the dispute between Aslef and the 14 rail corporations managed by the UK authorities and represented by the Rail Delivery Group (RDG).

In a snap social media ballot for The Independent, with 2,142 responses, one in three passengers say they may completely journey much less after the industrial motion lastly ends.

Meanwhile different strikes are occurring intermittently, with London Overground employees getting ready to stroll out. The RMT has known as two 48-hour strikes in February and March on the capital commuter community

These are the key questions and solutions.

Where are we with industrial motion on the railways?

Many rail passengers might really feel nationwide strikes have been happening endlessly. In reality, the first nationwide rail walkouts since the Eighties started in the summer time of 2022.

The bigger rail union, the RMT, has ended its marketing campaign of strikes for now. But Aslef, the smaller but extra highly effective prepare drivers’ union, is as removed from an settlement as ever with the 14 English rail corporations whose operations are managed by the authorities.

Since the dispute started, Aslef has known as common strikes and bans on rest-day working. The latest industrial motion by prepare drivers, comprising an additional time ban and “rolling” regional walk-outs, hit for 9 days from 29 January to six February.

The intention of those rolling strikes and the ban on rest-day working is to trigger most disruption for minimal lack of pay.

How a lot has all the disruption price?

According to the RDG, industrial motion from June 2022 up till mid-January 2024 has price the rail sector round £775m in misplaced income. That doesn’t embrace the influence of the most up-to-date strikes, which in all probability provides an extra £50m to the losses.

UKHospitality estimates the misplaced enterprise for locations to eat, drink and keep quantities to nearly £5bn. Kate Nicholls, the organisation’s chief govt, says: “Ongoing strike action hurts businesses, prevents people from getting to work and significantly erodes confidence in the rail network.”

In addition, there is an unknowable lack of income from passengers who’ve adjusted their life or discovered various types of transport; companies which have stopped making journeys and are utilizing on-line communication as a substitute; and folks trimming again on journey due to the lack of certainty.

What is at the root of the dispute?

The prepare drivers are demanding a no-strings pay rise – and say that some Aslef members haven’t had a rise for 5 years. But the authorities insists that even a modest pay improve is contingent on radical adjustments to long-standing working preparations with a view to scale back prices and the nearly £250 per second subsidy the railway is at present receiving from the taxpayer – 43 per cent increased than regular, in accordance with authorities figures.

Since the pandemic, journey patterns have modified. Ticket income is about one-fifth down on pre-Covid ranges. As taxpayers will foot the eventual invoice for the prepare drivers’ pay rise, the Department for Transport will log off any deal. Ministers consider prepare drivers’ phrases and circumstances are a part of the drawback.

To hold prices down, they need to settle for adjustments to how they work, corresponding to making Sunday a part of the working week all over the place. The union say this is fully unacceptable. The prepare drivers will negotiate on such adjustments, however solely after they get a good no-strings pay provide on prime of their present pay, averaging £60,000 a 12 months. They consider the cash might be discovered to fulfill their calls for, as a result of it all the time has been in the previous. They have additionally all the time “sold” reforms to working preparations for an additional few per cent on their pay, and they don’t intend to cease now.

Stuck in the center: the passenger.

Which rail corporations are concerned?

Aslef is in dispute with the prepare operators which can be contracted by the authorities to supply rail providers. They are:

Intercity operators:

Avanti West Coast

CrossCountry

East Midlands Railway

Great Western Railway (GWR)

LNER

TransPennine Express

Southeast England commuter operators:

C2C

Greater Anglia

GTR (Gatwick Express, Great Northern, Southern, Thameslink)

Southeastern

South Western Railway (together with the Island Line on the Isle of Wight)

Operators specializing in the Midlands and north of England:

Chiltern Railways

Northern Trains

West Midlands Railway (together with London Northwestern Railway)

Which corporations aren’t concerned?

ScotRail, Transport for Wales, Transport for London (together with the Elizabeth Line), Merseyrail and “open-access” operators corresponding to Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo. But their providers are crowded on days of commercial motion, the place they duplicate journeys of strike-hit corporations.

What are the warring sides saying?

Rail minister Huw Merriman informed The Independent: “We believe a fair and reasonable offer is there on the table for Aslef if they put it to their members. These are train drivers that are paid an average £60,000 for a 35-hour, four-day week. The pay deal would take them up to £65,000.”

A spokesperson for Rail Delivery Group, representing the prepare operators, stated: “There are no winners from these strikes that will unfortunately cause disruption for our customers. We believe rail can have a bright future, but right now taxpayers are contributing an extra £54m a week to keep services running post-Covid.

“Aslef’s leadership need to recognise the financial challenge facing rail. Instead of staging more damaging industrial action, we call on the Aslef leadership to work with us to resolve this dispute and deliver a fair deal which both rewards our people, and makes the changes needed to make services more reliable.”

But Mick Whelan, basic secretary of Aslef, says it’s a garbage deal that he can’t probably put to his members – a few of whom haven’t had a pay rise for 5 years. Aslef members have persistently voted overwhelmingly for industrial motion in pursuit of their calls for.

The union says it has had no talks with Mark Harper, the transport secretary, since 2022; with Huw Merriman, the rail minister, since January 2023; and with the employers since April 2023.

Mr Whelan stated: “We have given the government every opportunity to come to the table but it has now been a year since we had any contact from the Department for Transport. It’s clear they do not want to resolve this dispute.”

Meanwhile, the corrosion in confidence amongst travellers continues, with no rail passenger in a position to plan journeys greater than two weeks forward – that being the minimal discover the union should give for industrial motion.

What about the new minimal service ranges regulation?

Legislation now permits the transport secretary to stipulate minimal service ranges (MSLs) on strike days amounting to 40 per cent of the regular service. The authorities says the Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Act 2023 goals “to ensure that the public can continue to access services that they rely on, during strike action.”

No prepare operator is searching for to impose the new regulation on the prepare drivers’ union. LNER stated it’d achieve this, and opened consultations, at which level Aslef known as a separate five-day strike on LNER alone. Then the prepare operator stated it might not require drivers to work, and the strike was known as off.

The BBC experiences that the prime minister is disenchanted that prepare operators had not applied minimal service ranges. A Downing Street spokesperson stated: “Yes, it’s something that we and the public expect them to use.

“We’ve been repeatedly been clear that this legislation is available for train operators to use.”

The Transport Select Committee has beforehand warned of potential unintended penalties of the laws. The Conservative chair, Iain Stewart, stated: “There is a risk of MSLs worsening worker-employer relations and that, as a result, MSLs could end up making services less reliable.”

The minimal service degree guidelines don’t apply to union bans on non-contractual rest-day working – so there can be no profit in imposing the regulation when an additional time ban is in drive.

What are the London Overground strikes about?

Pay. More than 300 members of the RMT will stage two 48-hour walkouts on the London Overground on Mondays and Tuesdays two weeks aside: 19–20 February 2024 and 4–5 March 2024. Among these taking motion are safety, station, income and management workers.

The RMT stated that Arriva Rail London, which has the contract for London Overground, has provided a beneath inflation pay provide.

Mick Lynch, basic secretary of the RMT, stated: “If this dispute cannot be resolved then RMT is more than prepared for a sustained period of industrial action to get London Overground workers the pay rise they deserve.”

The boss of Arriva Rail London, Steve Best, informed The Independent: “We believe we have offered a good pay award in comparison not only to our industry, but other industries and businesses in the UK too. We remain committed to engaging with the RMT in the hope of resolving this dispute,” he stated.

“We remain in a cost-pressurised environment, and it is therefore important for us to offer our colleagues a pay award that is affordable and sustainable. We are committed to delivering fair pay awards for our employees, as well as protecting long-term job security for our people.

He said: “We are putting robust contingency plans in place should any industrial action go ahead, to ensure the safety and security of our people and customers.”

What does the Labour Party say?

Louise Haigh, Labour’s shadow transport secretary, stated: “It is a staggering dereliction of duty that the transport secretary hasn’t got around the table with the unions to try to resolve it since the Christmas before last.

“Labour will take an unashamedly different approach to the Tories, and will work with both sides to reach a deal in the interests of passengers and workers. If the transport secretary took this sensible approach then perhaps we wouldn’t still be having strikes on our railways.”

The shadow rail minister, Stephen Morgan MP, has beforehand stated: “Labour will bring our railways back into public ownership, as contracts expire, and ensure services work in the interests of the passenger.”