Labour could win 100-seat majority, says former Blair adviser as Brexit voters turn to Starmer

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Labour is heading in the right direction for a 50-100 seat majority, a former cupboard secretary has predicted, as Brexit voters turn to Sir Keir Starmer.

Voters in Brexit-backing coastal seats have swung again behind the Labour Party after supporting Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019, new polling reveals.

Lord O’Donnell, who ran the civil service below Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron, mentioned Labour’s majority after this yr’s election could be up to 100 seats.

“If you look at the evidence the polling says there’s been a consistent Labour lead of 18 points, roughly, for a long time now,” he instructed the BBC’s Today podcast. “I’m in the 50-100 seat majority if I had to put on it,” he added.

But Lord O’Donnell urged his civil service colleagues to “prepare for all possible outcomes”.

“Do not assume… one of the reasons I think the prime minister is deciding to wait is that things could change,” he mentioned.

His feedback got here as a ballot by suppose tank Labour Together confirmed that coastal voters again Labour over the Tories by a margin of 44 per cent to 24 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 11 per cent.

Coastal communities, these inside 5 miles of the ocean, have disproportionately backed successful causes over the past 40 years, with three-quarters supporting Margaret Thatcher in 1987 earlier than Tony Blair doubled Labour’s variety of seaside seats in 1997.

Most coastal seats supported Brexit and round 70 per cent voted Conservative in 2019.

That place now seems to have reversed once more, with Labour having fun with a web favourability score of seven per cent amongst coastal voters, whereas the Tories have slumped to minus 32 per cent.

The outcomes of the survey signify a lift for Labour in an space lately described by centre-right suppose tank Onward as “the forgotten battleground that could decide the next election”.

Josh Williams, director of technique at Labour Together, mentioned: “Where the coast goes, the country follows.

“Take a have a look at the polls now and the story is obvious: the tide is popping, and the Tories are vulnerable to being swept away.”

Addressing the final election, anticipated in October this yr, Lord O’Donnell mentioned: “Three factors that are difficult are, how much tactical voting will there be? I think quite a lot and that helps Labour. How much will Reform take away from the Tories? That helps Labour. And Scotland – clearly the collapse of the SNP helps Labour.”

His intervention is the most recent dire warning for the Tories, with Rishi Sunak’s occasion trailing Labour by round 20 factors within the polls.

Lord O’Donnell additionally took a swipe on the UK’s elections, saying First Past the Post voting system means Britain is “not a very good example of democracy”.

“You can get a lot of votes and not get anywhere… if you have a more proportional system he [Nigel Farage] who got his four million votes [in 2015] would deliver him something more [than one constituency],” he added.