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There was some ballyhooing on Sunday that bipartisan congressional leaders managed to avert a potential, partial government shutdown on January twentieth.
First of all, fats likelihood. This was a framework settlement. A quantity. Not a invoice.
Second of all, have you ever met Congress recently?
Third, there may not be sufficient time to keep away from a shutdown earlier than the 11:59:59 pm deadline to fund the government on January 19.
THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO WHERE WE STAND WITH A POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
Spending which covers 4 appropriations payments expires on the finish of the day on January 19. Those are measures coping with Agriculture, Military Construction/VA, Energy & Water and Transportation/Housing & Urban Development.
The different eight annual spending payments run out on the finish of the day on February 2, together with Defense and Homeland Security.
The important cause this proposal may not douse the government shutdown flames? There merely isn’t sufficient time.
FOX is advised that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) intends to course of the 4 payments due on January 19 individually – though it’s arduous to see how that may work. No appropriations payments are slated for exercise this week. So all the things doubtless comes up subsequent week. When requested if the House may glom the payments collectively, a senior House management supply mentioned no. But, one would by no means rule out the likelihood of lawmakers stitching a few of the payments collectively.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks whereas standing with Republican members of Congress, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024, in Eagle Pass, Texas. Johnson is main about 60 fellow Republicans in Congress on a go to to the Mexican border. Joining Speaker Johnson in entrance row are, from left, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, House Homeland Security Chair Mark Green, R-Tenn., Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., and Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Even if the House was in a position to advance 4 payments subsequent week efficiently (and the GOP’s observe file on that rating has not been nice), that chews up time. It additionally hamstrings the Senate to align with the House.
So, they’re running out of observe. Fast.
The House may expedite the method by placing the payments on the ground by way of a process referred to as “suspension of the rules.” This is the place the invoice goes instantly to the ground and never via the extra cumbersome House Rules Committee. The House additionally spends much less time debating the invoice on the ground. The tradeoff is that it requires a two-thirds vote to cross the invoice. That means a coalition of Republicans and Democrats should group up to approve the measure. Ultra-conservatives gained’t help an strategy like that. But a giant group of GOPers will. Couple that with most Democrats and the payments most likely cross with greater than 300 yeas – properly above the two-thirds threshold required.
But what’s going to the best say about Johnson? Remember, conservatives began to hammer former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for passing payments with extra Democrats than Republicans. That’s a strike towards the Speaker proper there.
In addition, Johnson additionally opposes doing any kind of interim spending invoice to avert a shutdown, often called a “continuing resolution” or “CR.”
So again to the Senate on this equation. The Senate can transfer lightning quick if all 100 senators are in settlement. In truth, a lot quicker than even the House. But processing a number of spending payments by the e-book may eat days on finish within the Senate. And bear in mind, the House and Senate should be synced up earlier than Congress can ship a invoice to President Biden to signal.
This is why the probabilities of a potential government shutdown stay excessive – except the edges resolve to do a CR.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is now endorsing a short-term CR to give appropriators time to write the spending payments to the degrees agreed upon within the bipartisan accord.
McConnell is aware of the edges are virtually out of time.
“The simplest things take a week in the Senate,” mentioned McConnell. “I think frequently the House doesn’t understand how long it takes to get something through the Senate.”
(AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
Here’s one other dynamic. There are some conservatives who need a government shutdown. They will argue it’s greatest to shutter the government till there’s a border deal. In truth, it’s arduous to consider there hasn’t been at the very least one government shutdown thus far this Congress. So maybe that is the time when a shutdown hits.
“We need to get our work done. And if we have to shut down for a few days to finish up the work, then we should,” mentioned Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., the Chairman of the Republican Study Committee, the biggest bloc of conservatives within the House.
That doesn’t sit properly with some veteran Republicans.
“I’ve lived through more than a few shutdowns. A shutdown is a road to nowhere,” mentioned Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). “Nobody wins in a shutdown. And particularly, the American people.”
And take into account the payments which expire on January 19. Some lawmakers would say the payments on the clock proper now cowl the least vital federal departments and applications. Agriculture and HUD is on the listing. Not the Pentagon and Homeland Security.
So by no means rule out the likelihood of a government shutdown – simply because politically, it may simply want to occur to fulfill some on the best or to make a level. Conservatives are notably exercised concerning the border disaster. Some arch-conservatives say they gained’t help funding the government till the border is safe – though the January 19 deadline and its set of payments has nothing to do with the border.
SENATE NOT EXPECTED TO RELEASE TEXT ON BORDER SECURITY PACKAGE THIS WEEK
Perhaps not sarcastically, Johnson may rating some political factors from skeptical conservatives if there’s a government shutdown.
McCarthy wasn’t prepared to go to the mat. Johnson may choose up applause proper there. Right-wing House members in rock-ribbed Republican districts may rating plaudits from some of their constituents if there’s a shutdown. Those conservatives are outraged that Johnson cast the topline spending deal.
“Speaker Johnson is doing all the same stupid crap that we opposed,” mentioned Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) to FOX colleague Aishah Hasnie.
Roy isn’t ruling out pushing an effort to take away Johnson as Speaker.
“I’m not going to say what would trigger it or what wouldn’t trigger it,” mentioned Roy. “What I would say is we’ve got to do better.”
But the persistence with Johnson is rising skinny. Members of the House Freedom Caucus blocked the House from even debating different laws Wednesday, protesting Johnson’s spending cope with Democrats. And different Republicans are affected by purchaser’s regret.
Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) characterised his vote for Johnson as “one of the the worst votes I’ve cast.”
The idea of a government shutdown may appear perverse to bipartisan Congressional veterans. It would undercut efforts to safe a border deal. That’s to say nothing of the GOP’s plan to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. But that’s the character of Congress in 2024.
GOP hardliners like Rep. Chip Roy and Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good are panning Speaker Johnson’s government funding deal.
But simply bear in mind, no aspect has ever benefitted politically from a government shutdown. As for coverage victories? There have been a few of these after a sequence of shutdowns within the mid-Nineties. But the reward is meager.
The topline settlement nonetheless fails to deal with how lawmakers may fund the government by February 2. That’s the place a main calamity may unfold. If the edges are nonetheless dithering over funding the 4 appropriations payments due in January, there’ll be a full government shutdown if Congress hasn’t addressed all 12 of the annual spending plans by February 2. And any political chits which Johnson may accumulate from the best over a shutdown may be dashed by any bipartisan settlement to fund the government.
Conservatives are already skewering Johnson for adhering to the phrases of the spring, 2023 debt ceiling pact McCarthy made with President Biden. The proper needed a new sheriff on the town. But thus far, they haven’t seen that issues are working a lot otherwise.
This is why Johnson finds himself in a jam. He has a lot to promote to his members over the subsequent few days.
As for the Democrats? They are happy with the deal. Republicans didn’t power deeper cuts. And if the government shuts down? Democrats actually don’t need that. But they consider that comports with the chaos which has dominated the House Republican Conference all through the 118th Congress. A shutdown solely underscores the bedlam – and offers Democrats extra political ammo this fall as they struggle to cling to the Senate and flip management of the House.
Moreover, what if there may be an interim spending deal which retains the lights on? A so-called “CR?” Some Republicans have spoken about a CR for the rest of fiscal 12 months 2024 (September 30) which might renew outdated funding – however slash it by one p.c throughout the board.
The Pentagon consumes practically half of all discretionary spending which Congress doles out. As half of the $1.59 trillion topline settlement, the navy would obtain $866 billion. All different applications (bear in mind that is ALL different federal applications): $704 billion. So a one p.c throughout the board minimize as half of a floated year-long CR would exponentially injury the navy probably the most. McConnell has spoken out towards this. Otherwise, a common CR (simply reupping the outdated funding with out cuts, which Johnson adamantly opposes) advantages the Democrats. That means the federal government continues to function properly into fiscal 12 months 2024 on a spending plan authored by Democrats. While not optimum, some Democrats would take that deal.
So a potential government shutdown looms in simply a few days.
This is the “Eastbound and Down” strategy to government funding. Jerry Reed sang “Eastbound and Down,” the hit theme of the film “Smokey and the Bandit.”
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“We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there,” sings Reed. “We’re gonna do what they say can’t be done.”
That sums up completely the conundrum dealing with lawmakers earlier than subsequent week’s deadline.
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