The Hitchhiker’s Guide to why the bipartisan spending agreement doesn’t necessarily avert government shutdown

There was some ballyhooing on Sunday that bipartisan Congressional leaders managed to avert a possible, partial government shutdown in the early morning hours of January 20.

First of all, fats probability.

Second of all, have you ever met Congress recently?

Third, there is probably not sufficient time to keep away from a shutdown earlier than the 11:59:59 pm deadline to fund the government on January 19.

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Spending protecting 4 government spending payments expires at the finish of the day on January 19. Those are payments coping with Agriculture, Military Construction/VA, Energy & Water and Transportation/Housing & Urban Development.

The different eight annual spending payments run out at the finish of the day on February 2, together with protection and Homeland Security.

The primary purpose this proposal might not douse the government shutdown flames? There merely isn’t sufficient time.

FOX is advised that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) intends to course of the 4 payments due on January 19 individually. No appropriations payments are slated for exercise this week. So every thing probably comes up subsequent week. When requested if the House would possibly glom the payments collectively, a senior House management supply stated no. But, one would by no means rule out the chance of lawmakers stitching a number of of the payments collectively.

Even if the House was in a position to advance 4 payments subsequent week efficiently (and the GOP’s monitor file has not been nice), that chews up time. It additionally eats up time to get the Senate to align with the House.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., proper, and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., conduct a information convention that includes remarks by school college students about antisemitism on school campuses, in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, December 5, 2023. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc through Getty Images)

So, they’re operating out of monitor. Fast.

The House may expedite the course of by placing the payments on the flooring through a process known as “suspension of the rules.” This is the place the invoice goes immediately to the flooring and never by way of the extra cumbersome House Rules Committee. The House additionally spends much less time debating the invoice on the flooring. The tradeoff is that it requires a two-thirds vote to cross the invoice. That means a coalition of Republicans and Democrats should group up to approve the measure. Ultra-conservatives received’t help an method like that. But a big group of GOPers will. Couple that with most Democrats and the payments will most likely cross with greater than 300 votes – effectively above the two-thirds threshold required.

But what is going to the proper say about Johnson? Remember, conservatives began to hammer former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) for passing payments with extra Democrats than Republicans. That’s a strike towards Johnson proper there.

In addition, Johnson additionally opposes doing any kind of interim spending invoice to avert a shutdown, often known as a “continuing resolution” or “CR.”

We additionally haven’t even thought-about the Senate on this equation. The Senate can transfer lightning quick if all 100 senators are in agreement. In truth, a lot sooner than even the House. But processing a number of spending payments by the e-book may eat days on finish in the Senate. And keep in mind, the House and Senate have to be in alignment earlier than Congress can ship a invoice to President Biden to signal.

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This is why the possibilities of a attainable government shutdown stay excessive.

There are some conservatives who need a government shutdown. They will argue it’s finest to shutter the government till there’s a border deal. In truth, it’s exhausting to imagine there hasn’t been a minimum of one government shutdown to date this Congress. So maybe this the time when a shutdown hits.

And take into account the payments which expire on January 19. Some lawmakers would say the payments on the clock proper now cowl the least necessary federal departments and applications. Agriculture and HUD is on the checklist. Not the Pentagon and Homeland Security. 

So by no means rule out the chance of a government shutdown – simply because politically, it might simply want to occur to fulfill some on the proper or to make some extent. Conservatives are significantly exercised about the border disaster. Some arch-conservatives say they received’t help funding the government till the border is safe – regardless that this deadline and set of payments has nothing to do with the border. 

Perhaps not so satirically, Johnson might rating some political factors from skeptical conservatives if there’s a government shutdown. McCarthy wasn’t keen to go to the mat. Johnson may choose up applause proper there. Right-wing House members in rock-ribbed Republican districts would possibly rating plaudits from a few of their constituents if there’s a shutdown.

The idea of a government shutdown could appear perverse to bipartisan Congressional veterans. But that’s the nature of Congress in 2024.

Then-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-California, speaks to reporters exterior the Speakers Balcony at the U.S. Capitol Building on July 25. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

But simply keep in mind, no aspect has ever benefitted politically from a government shutdown. As for coverage victories? There had been a number of of these after a sequence of shutdowns in the mid-Nineties. But the reward is meager.

The topline agreement nonetheless fails to handle how lawmakers would possibly fund the government by February 2. That’s the place a serious calamity would possibly unfold. If the sides are nonetheless dithering over funding the 4 appropriations payments due in January, there will probably be a whole government shutdown if Congress hasn’t addressed all 12 of the annual spending plans by February 2. And any political chits which Johnson may acquire from the proper over a shutdown may very well be dashed by any bipartisan agreement to fund the government.

Conservatives are already skewering Johnson as a result of he adhered to the phrases of the spring, 2023 debt ceiling pact McCarthy made with President Biden. The proper wished a brand new sheriff on the town. But to date, they haven’t seen that issues are working a lot in another way.

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This is why Johnson finds himself in a jam. He has so much to promote to his members over the subsequent few days.

As for the Democrats? They are happy with the deal. Republicans didn’t power deeper cuts. And if the government shuts down? Democrats actually don’t need that. But they imagine that comports with the chaos which has dominated the GOP all through the 118th Congress. A shutdown solely underscores the bedlam – and provides Democrats extra political ammo this fall as they struggle to cling to the Senate and flip management of the House. 

Moreover, what if there’s an interim spending deal which retains the lights on? A so-called “CR?” Some Republicans have spoken a few CR for the the rest of fiscal yr 2024 (September 30) which might renew previous funding – however slash it by one p.c throughout the board.

(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The Pentagon consumes practically half of all discretionary spending which Congress doles out. As a part of the $1.59 trillion topline agreement, the army would obtain $866 billion. All different applications (keep in mind that is ALL different federal applications): $704 billion. So a one p.c across-the-board minimize as part of a floated year-old CR would exponentially harm the army the most. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has spoken out towards this. Otherwise, a daily CR (simply reupping the previous funding with out cuts, which Johnson adamantly opposes) advantages the Democrats. That means the federal government continues to function effectively into fiscal yr 2024 on a spending plan authored by Democrats. So whereas not optimum, some Democrats would take that deal.

So a attainable government shutdown looms in just some days.

This is the “Eastbound and Down” method to government funding. Jerry Reed sang “Eastbound and Down,” the hit theme of the film “Smokey and the Bandit.”

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“We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there,” sings Reed. “We’re gonna do what they say can’t be done.”

That sums up completely the conundrum dealing with lawmakers earlier than subsequent week’s deadline.