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The sheer crush of time is extraordinary. Congress returns to session this week after a prolonged vacation recess – for much longer for the House than the Senate. And lawmakers face a direct shutdown by the tip of subsequent week.
This is the right approach to provoke 2024 in Congress. A flirtation with a shutdown within the opening days epitomizes what 2024 could also be like on Capitol Hill.
That stated, President Biden and bipartisan, bicameral leaders simply solid an settlement on a “topline” for all discretionary spending for the rest of fiscal 12 months 2024.
This isn’t a invoice. This isn’t a “continuing resolution,” an interim invoice to maintain the federal government afloat.
Congress faces a direct shutdown by the tip of subsequent week. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
But it’s a begin. And there’s a lot to do to keep away from shutting down the federal government in just some days.
With 2024 being an election 12 months – and each the House and Senate managed by slender majorities – it might nicely finish with contretemps over election recounts and certifications of House and Senate contests as they type out which get together controls every physique heading into 2025. That’s to say nothing of doable debates over who received the presidential election. Naturally that might tee up yet one more set of challenges within the House and Senate on January 6, 2025 to determine who heads to 1600 Pennsylvania, Ave.
So the following 12 months are going to be a doozy in Congress. Hope everybody had a pleasant trip.
If Congress struggles to fund the federal government, one might envision a state of affairs the place lawmakers are marooned in Washington for weeks on finish – ala the 10-plus week stretch within the fall. That concerned a dalliance with a authorities shutdown in October, the dethroning of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and an epic, internecine GOP battle earlier than the House lastly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
The conservative House Freedom Caucus led a revolt towards Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s settlement on Sunday night. (J. Scott Applewhite)
We don’t consider there’s any quick menace to Johnson’s grasp on the gavel. But as soon as (and if) lawmakers get by way of the January 19 funding deadline, that solely douses the fiscal flames quickly. There’s one other deadline on February 2. The House is scheduled to be out of session the week of January 21. Then again for 3 weeks. Then out of session the weeks of February 18 and February 25. That’s adopted up by three weeks in Washington in early March. Then out on the finish of March and first week of April.
HOUSE GOP MAJORITY TO SHRINK AGAIN IN TIME FOR POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN
A authorities shutdown disaster might pulverize the congressional schedule. The identical with efforts to advance a plan to deal with border safety and fund Ukraine and Israel.
House Republicans are targeted on different issues, too. They’re taking a look at impeachment for President Biden, impeachment for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and a contempt of Congress quotation for Hunter Biden. Throw in some critical, bipartisan questions on why Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the Pentagon apparently did not notify anybody that he was hospitalized, and you’ve got a staggering quantity of legislative and political site visitors on Capitol Hill.
All of this hinges on the selections of key gamers. Whether they negotiate. Whether they stumble. Whether they produce legislative miracles. Success and failure is the quintessence of Congress. So right here’s a thumbnail have a look at some figures to observe in 2024 – and what it might imply for 2025.
House Republicans are taking a look at impeachment for President Biden (Al Drago)
Let’s begin with the Speaker.
Johnson’s quick future seems to be safe. But if Johnson falters? Or if the GOP loses the bulk within the fall? Does Johnson stick round? Divining a potential Johnson successor could be as difficult because it was to forecast the Speaker’s rise to energy. House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is the one present member of the GOP brass who emerged unscathed from this fall’s battle for the gavel.
Rank and file Republicans rejected each House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., for Speaker in October. Would Stefanik be within the combine? It’s additionally doable that President Trump might take into account Stefanik as his working mate this 12 months.
Of course Johnson could also be tremendous. That’s actually the case if GOP holds the House, Johnson placates rambunctious conservatives and demonstrates substantial fundraising prowess.
JOHNSON SPARS WITH WHITE HOUSE OVER BORDER FUNDING CLAIMS: ‘DESPERATE’
Johnson is also just liked better than Kevin McCarthy.
The Freedom Caucus once again commands the spotlight. Pay attention to Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, and new Freedom Caucus leader Rep. Bob Good, R-Va.
Former Rep. Kevin McCarthy was ousted Speaker of the House in fall of 2023. (Kent Nishimura)
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., also bear watching. What do they do with impeachment? And if they don’t impeach, was this duo simply making a whole lot of noise?
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., might very nicely be Speaker of the House this time subsequent 12 months if Democrats flip management. But Jeffries is beginning to see some fractures in his caucus between progressive, pro-Palestinian Democrats and others who align themselves with Israel. How Jeffries wrestles with these divisions will check his management abilities.
Another identify to regulate: Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash. She chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). DelBene will profit large time if Democrats run good races and seize management of the House.
Also watch Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif. He’s one of the susceptible Republicans dealing with reelection this fall, squeaking out a win in 2022 in a district carried by President Biden.
Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., can also be one of the bipartisan members of Congress. But President Biden received one of many electoral votes in Bacon’s district in 2020 because of Nebraska’s proportional distribution system.
Democrat House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is beginning to see some fractures in his caucus between progressive, pro-Palestinian Democrats and others who align themselves with Israel. (Kevin Dietsch)
In the Senate, the percentages actually favor Republicans flipping the Senate. Democrats are defending method too many seats in swing states. Republicans are dealing with reelection in states that are already ruby pink. However, will Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., return as the highest Republican – both within the majority or the minority? McConnell confronted a management problem in late 2022 from Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. The degree of antipathy between former President Trump and McConnell is palpable. Could a second time period for former President Trump undo McConnell as chief – despite the fact that the Kentucky Republican is the longest-serving get together chief in historical past?
Also, McConnell skilled a number of well being scares in 2023. Some Republicans may push for McConnell to step apart if he suffers from further well being issues.
Granted, McConnell might get credit score if the GOP wins the Senate.
This brings us to Sen. Steve Daines, R-Montan. Daines chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). He’ll win plaudits if Republicans win the Senate – despite the fact that it’s a simple map for the GOP. Plus, Daines and McConnell have tried to draft extra “electable” Republicans this 12 months. McConnell has spoken at size about how “candidate quality” undercut the GOP’s possibilities to win the Senate in 2022.
However, don’t underestimate possibilities for Senate Republicans to botch what could possibly be a layup this autumn. Senate Republicans actually stole defeat from the jaws of victory in 2022, 2020 and 2010. That’s why there could possibly be hell to pay if Republicans don’t win Senate management. Some Republicans will look straight at McConnell and Daines.
As chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Daines is working to recruit extra “electable” Republicans this 12 months. (Tom Williams)
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., is retiring. But Manchin is prone to be central to any battles over spending or different main laws at some stage in his time period. There remains to be a buzz about whether or not Manchin might run as an unbiased or third get together for President.
There can also be consideration on Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz. Sinema is a central participant within the border safety talks. She’s outraged some liberals for working as a centrist and abandoning the Democratic Party. If Sinema runs and wins reelection and Republicans flip the Senate, search for the GOP to court docket her to change into a part of their potential majority.
2023 was a doozy on Capitol Hill. 2024 might even be doozier. And then there’s 2025. Congress punted the debt ceiling till early subsequent 12 months. The Congressional certification of the presidential election additionally falls on January 6, 2025.
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., stated he is not going to search re-election in 2024. (Getty Images)
The debt ceiling and certifying the outcomes of the Electoral College often is the solely large points with which Congress received’t should wrestle in 2024.
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As I say, I hope you loved your trip.
Perhaps for the following couple of years.
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